New England Surf Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU11 · 8 teams · New England Surf (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 8 minutes ago.

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1st

4-0-0 record · 4 played

3.00 points per game

+15 goal diff · 16–1

WWWWlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

-0.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:30 PM

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New England Surf Pre
1st · 3.00 PPG

Scorpions SC South Pre
5th · 1.50 PPG

Union Point Sports Complex, Field 3 ↗

86% 8%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.1 for, 1.2 against · 2.67 expected points)

Season so far	New England Surf Pre	Scorpions SC South Pre
Position	1st	5th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-0	2-0-2
Points per game	3.00	1.50
Goals for / game	4.0	2.5
Goals against / game	0.3	2.8
Clean sheets	3	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W	W W L L
Biggest win	7–0 at Connecticut FC Legacy Pre	5–3 at Vale Rush United Pre
Worst loss	—	2–4 vs Albany Alleycats Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.99	-0.08
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.42	-0.02

Common opponents: Vale Rush United Pre — we 4–0; they 5–3. AC Connecticut Pre — we 4–1; they 2–1. Select Northeast Pre — we 1–0; they 1–3.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Scorpions SC South Pre concede 2.8/game; worst result 2–4 vs Albany Alleycats Pre.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 86% chance; likely score 4–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Scorpions SC South Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (New England Surf Pre – Scorpions SC South Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.60 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.40 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

98% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 98%
2nd 2%
3rd <1%
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

9 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link New England Surf Pre to Scorpions SC South Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

1 even

0 favour them

+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.23 · 8th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 03:30 PM	Scorpions SC South Pre 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1	Home Union Point Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	4–1	2.67	2.93	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 12:30 PM	Albany Alleycats Pre 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +0	Home Union Point Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–1	2.60	2.88	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 04:45 PM	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +1	Home Union Point Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	2–0	2.43	2.81	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 10:30 AM	Vale Rush United Pre 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -4	Home Union Point Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–0	2.75	2.81	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 08:00 AM	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +1	Away far trip FC Stars Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–0	2.24	2.74	Swing game
Sun Feb 28 TBD	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	4–0	2.94	2.76	Bank it
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Albany Alleycats Pre 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +0	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	3–1	2.41	2.73	Bank it
Sat Mar 13 TBD	Select Northeast Pre 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	1–0	1.97	2.67	Swing game
Sat Mar 20 TBD	AC Connecticut Pre 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	2–0	2.38	2.64	Bank it
Sat Mar 27 TBD	Select Northeast Pre 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	1–1	1.74	2.58	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 TBD	Scorpions SC South Pre 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	3–1	2.49	2.57	Bank it
Sat Apr 17 TBD	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +1	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–0	2.24	2.55	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Vale Rush United Pre 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -4	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	3–1	2.61	2.56	Bank it
Sat May 1 TBD	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	4–0	2.89	2.58	Bank it
Sun May 9 TBD	Albany Alleycats Pre 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +0	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–1	2.60	2.58	Bank it
Sun May 16 TBD	AC Connecticut Pre 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	2–0	2.55	2.57	Bank it
Sun Jun 6 TBD	Scorpions SC South Pre 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	4–1	2.67	2.58	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

New England Surf Pre

+15

3.00

WWWW

-0.42

-0.23

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Scorpions SC South Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Albany Alleycats Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Stars New Hampshire Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	4–1	86%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	4–0	97%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	2–0	69%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	3–1	84%
·	Sat May 1	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun May 16	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	2–0	81%
·	Sun Jun 6	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	4–1	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars New Hampshire Pre

2.00

WWL

-0.75

+0.14

62%

4.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Select Northeast Pre · Sun Nov 1 at New England Surf Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–1	25%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat May 1	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat May 15	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun May 23	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Jun 5	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Select Northeast Pre

1.75

DWWL

+0.49

-0.23

98%

2.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Stars New Hampshire Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Vale Rush United Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–0	47%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	83%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–0	55%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	88%
·	Sat May 1	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat May 15	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat May 22	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	88%
·	Sat Jun 5	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–0	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albany Alleycats Pre

1.75

WDLW

+0.07

-0.01

63%

4.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sun Oct 25 at New England Surf Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs AC Connecticut Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–2	49%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–2	57%
·	Sun May 9	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Jun 5	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–0	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Scorpions SC South Pre

-1

1.50

LLWW

-0.02

+0.02

51%

4.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	5–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	2–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at New England Surf Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Vale Rush United Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Albany Alleycats Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	3–2	56%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–2	32%
·	Sat May 15	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Jun 6	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–4	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AC Connecticut Pre

-2

1.00

DLLW

+0.11

+0.01

20%

5.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–4
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Vale Rush United Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Albany Alleycats Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun May 16	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sat May 22	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–1	16%
·	Sun May 23	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Jun 5	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Vale Rush United Pre

-4

0.80

LDLWL

-0.08

+0.10

6.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	3–5
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AC Connecticut Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC South Pre · Sat Nov 14 at New England Surf Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat May 1	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	2–2	26%
·	Sun May 9	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat May 15	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Jun 5	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Connecticut FC Legacy Pre

-14

0.00

LLLL

+0.27

+0.28

8.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	0–2

Next: Sat Sep 26 at AC Connecticut Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Albany Alleycats Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Select Northeast Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–2	5%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–2	3%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat May 1	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sat May 8	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun May 23	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–2	3%
·	Sat Jun 5	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.