Albany Alleycats Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU11 · 8 teams · Empire State Youth Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Afrims Bethlehem Dome, Indoor Dome ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.4 for, 0.9 against · 2.63 expected points)
| Season so far | Albany Alleycats Pre | Connecticut FC Legacy Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-1 | 0-0-4 |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 3.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W L D W | L L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–2 at Scorpions SC South Pre | — |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at Select Northeast Pre | 0–7 vs New England Surf Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.01 | -1.95 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.06 | +0.29 |
Common opponents: Vale Rush United Pre — we 3–3; they 0–3. FC Stars New Hampshire Pre — we 2–0; they 0–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre concede 3.5/game; worst result 0–7 vs New England Surf Pre.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Select Northeast Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
Select Northeast Pre sit 3rd on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.75.A point moves us above Select Northeast Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Connecticut FC Legacy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Albany Alleycats Pre – Connecticut FC Legacy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.60 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.40 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 7%
- 3rd 28%
- 4th 26%
- 5th 20%
- 6th 15%
- 7th 4%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.76 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Surf Pre | 3.00 (+1.25) | 1st (2.58) | 56 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection |
| 2 | FC Stars New Hampshire Pre | 2.00 (+0.25) | 4th (1.46) | Win next game |
| 3 | Select Northeast Pre | 1.75 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.92) | A point next game |
How the results connect
10 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Albany Alleycats Pre to Connecticut FC Legacy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14 |
Home Afrims Bethlehem Dome |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–0 | 2.63 | 1.93 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 12:30 PM |
New England Surf Pre 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Union Point Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.30 | 1.65 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
AC Connecticut Pre 6th · 2-1-2 · GD -1 |
Home Afrims Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.60 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
Scorpions SC South Pre 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home Afrims Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.64 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM |
AC Connecticut Pre 6th · 2-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Western Connecticut State University - Westside At |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.61 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Vale Rush United Pre 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.61 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
New England Surf Pre 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.45 | 1.51 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.23 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Select Northeast Pre 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.96 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 27 TBD |
FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.23 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.46 | 1.50 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
AC Connecticut Pre 6th · 2-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Scorpions SC South Pre 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.30 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Vale Rush United Pre 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -5 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.91 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
New England Surf Pre 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.30 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Select Northeast Pre 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.96 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Jun 5 TBD |
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–0 | 2.63 | 1.47 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | New England Surf Pre | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | +15 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.40 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Scorpions SC South Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Albany Alleycats Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Stars New Hampshire Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Stars New Hampshire Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.76 | +0.15 | 59% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Select Northeast Pre · Sun Nov 1 at New England Surf Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Select Northeast Pre | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 7 | 1.75 | DWWL | +0.51 | -0.22 | 98% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Stars New Hampshire Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Vale Rush United Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Albany Alleycats Pre | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 7 | 1.75 | WDLW | +0.06 | +0.01 | 61% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sun Oct 25 at New England Surf Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs AC Connecticut Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Scorpions SC South Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | LLWW | -0.00 | +0.03 | 45% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at New England Surf Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Vale Rush United Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Albany Alleycats Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | AC Connecticut Pre | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 | 1.40 | DLLWW | -0.03 | +0.03 | 36% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Albany Alleycats Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Albany Alleycats Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Vale Rush United Pre | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 4 | 0.67 | DLWLL | -0.09 | +0.14 | 2% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC South Pre · Sat Nov 14 at New England Surf Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Select Northeast Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Connecticut FC Legacy Pre | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.29 | +0.28 | 0% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at AC Connecticut Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Albany Alleycats Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Select Northeast Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.76 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.