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Albany Alleycats Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU11 · 8 teams · Empire State Youth Soccer Club (all teams)

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4th
2-1-1 record · 4 played
1.75 points per game
+0 goal diff · 9–9
WDLWlast 4
61% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2
+0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Albany Alleycats Pre
4th · 1.75 PPG
vs

Afrims Bethlehem Dome, Indoor Dome ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.4 for, 0.9 against · 2.63 expected points)

Season so farAlbany Alleycats PreConnecticut FC Legacy Pre
Position4th8th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-10-0-4
Points per game1.750.00
Goals for / game2.30.0
Goals against / game2.33.5
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless14
Form (recent first)W L D WL L L L
Biggest win4–2 at Scorpions SC South Pre—
Worst loss0–4 at Select Northeast Pre0–7 vs New England Surf Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.01-1.95
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.06+0.29

Common opponents: Vale Rush United Pre — we 3–3; they 0–3. FC Stars New Hampshire Pre — we 2–0; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Connecticut FC Legacy Pre average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 4.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Connecticut FC Legacy Pre concede 3.5/game; worst result 0–7 vs New England Surf Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Select Northeast Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Connecticut FC Legacy Pre have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Select Northeast Pre sit 3rd on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.75.

    A point moves us above Select Northeast Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Connecticut FC Legacy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Albany Alleycats Pre – Connecticut FC Legacy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG
2nd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG
2nd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds
Draw
1.60 PPG
4th— holds 3rd▲ up 1 5th▼ down 1
Loss
1.40 PPG
5th▼ down 1 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
61% top 4
39% below the top 4
4.2 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 7%
  3. 3rd 28%
  4. 4th 26%
  5. 5th 20%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.76 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 New England Surf Pre 3.00 (+1.25) 1st (2.58) 56 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
2 FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 2.00 (+0.25) 4th (1.46) Win next game
3 Select Northeast Pre 1.75 (+0.00) 2nd (1.92) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Albany Alleycats Pre to Connecticut FC Legacy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
1 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 3–0 2–0 2–0 1–2 0–1 2–0 0–4 0–0 0–1 7–0 0–4 4–2 2–1 5–3 Albany Alleycats Pre 4th Vale Rush United Pre 7th FC Stars New Hampsh… 2nd Select Northeast Pre 3rd Scorpions SC South … 5th AC Connecticut Pre 6th New England Surf Pre 1st Connecticut FC Lega… 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 4th 8th Sep 12 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 6th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre
8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14
Home
Afrims Bethlehem Dome
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.63 1.93 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
12:30 PM
New England Surf Pre
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Away far trip
Union Point Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.30 1.65 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
AC Connecticut Pre
6th · 2-1-2 · GD -1
Home
Afrims Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.60 1.65 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM
Scorpions SC South Pre
5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Home
Afrims Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.64 1.65 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM
AC Connecticut Pre
6th · 2-1-2 · GD -1
Away far trip
Western Connecticut State University - Westside At
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.34 1.61 Upside
Sat Feb 27
TBD
Vale Rush United Pre
7th · 1-1-4 · GD -5
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.61 1.61 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
TBD
New England Surf Pre
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Home
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.45 1.51 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
FC Stars New Hampshire Pre
2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.23 1.48 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Select Northeast Pre
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5
Home
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–1 0.96 1.44 Upside
Sat Mar 27
TBD
FC Stars New Hampshire Pre
2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.23 1.43 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre
8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.46 1.50 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
AC Connecticut Pre
6th · 2-1-2 · GD -1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.34 1.49 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Scorpions SC South Pre
5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.30 1.48 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Vale Rush United Pre
7th · 1-1-4 · GD -5
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.91 1.50 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD
New England Surf Pre
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Away
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.30 1.44 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Select Northeast Pre
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5
Home
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–1 0.96 1.41 Upside
Sat Jun 5
TBD
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre
8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.63 1.47 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 New England Surf Pre 4400 161+15 123.00 WWWW -0.40 -0.22 100% 1.0
2 FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 3201 43+1 62.00 WWL -0.76 +0.15 59% 4.2
3 Select Northeast Pre 4211 72+5 71.75 DWWL +0.51 -0.22 98% 2.3
4 Albany Alleycats Pre 4211 99+0 71.75 WDLW +0.06 +0.01 61% 4.2
5 Scorpions SC South Pre 4202 1011-1 61.50 LLWW -0.00 +0.03 45% 4.6
6 AC Connecticut Pre 5212 56-1 71.40 DLLWW -0.03 +0.03 36% 4.9
7 Vale Rush United Pre 6114 1015-5 40.67 DLWLL -0.09 +0.14 2% 6.7
8 Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 4004 014-14 00.00 LLLL +0.29 +0.28 0% 8.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.76 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.