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FC Stars New Hampshire Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU11 · 8 teams · FC Stars (all teams)

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2nd
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
+1 goal diff · 4–3
WWLlast 3
61% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2
-0.75 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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FC Stars New Hampshire Pre
2nd · 2.00 PPG
vs
Select Northeast Pre
3rd · 1.75 PPG

FC Stars Soccer Complex, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.9 for, 1.4 against · 1.02 expected points)

Season so farFC Stars New Hampshire PreSelect Northeast Pre
Position2nd3rd
Record (W-D-L)2-0-12-1-1
Points per game2.001.75
Goals for / game1.31.8
Goals against / game1.00.5
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)L W WL W W D
Biggest win2–0 at Connecticut FC Legacy Pre4–0 vs Albany Alleycats Pre
Worst loss0–2 at Albany Alleycats Pre0–1 at New England Surf Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.04+0.77
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.75+0.49

Common opponents: Albany Alleycats Pre — we 0–2; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Select Northeast Pre concede only 0.5/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Albany Alleycats Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 25%; a draw (28%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Select Northeast Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Stars New Hampshire Pre – Select Northeast Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.50 PPG
4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 3
Win
2.25 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
1.75 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 4th▼ down 2
Loss
1.50 PPG
4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we fall to at least 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
61% top 4
39% below the top 4
4.2 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 8%
  3. 3rd 27%
  4. 4th 26%
  5. 5th 21%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 New England Surf Pre 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.58) 57 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection

How the results connect

7 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link FC Stars New Hampshire Pre to Select Northeast Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
6 favour them
-2.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 0–4 2–0 0–2 0–0 4–2 1–3 2–1 0–4 1–0 3–3 3–5 0–7 FC Stars New Hampsh… 2nd Albany Alleycats Pre 4th Connecticut FC Lega… 8th Vale Rush United Pre 7th AC Connecticut Pre 6th Scorpions SC South … 5th New England Surf Pre 1st Select Northeast Pre 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 4th 8th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.14 · 2nd hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM
Select Northeast Pre
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5
Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
25%
0–1 1.02 1.76 Upside
Sun Nov 1
04:45 PM
New England Surf Pre
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Away far trip
Union Point Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–2 0.42 1.49 Upside
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre
8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14
Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.48 1.65 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
08:00 AM
New England Surf Pre
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
13%
0–2 0.58 1.50 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:45 PM
Scorpions SC South Pre
5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Home
MYSA Progin Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.61 1.51 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
TBD
Scorpions SC South Pre
5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.32 1.49 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Albany Alleycats Pre
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.54 1.50 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Vale Rush United Pre
7th · 1-1-3 · GD -4
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.81 1.53 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Select Northeast Pre
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.83 1.47 Upside
Sat Mar 27
TBD
Albany Alleycats Pre
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.54 1.47 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 PM
AC Connecticut Pre
6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
Western Connecticut State University - Westside At
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.41 1.47 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
New England Surf Pre
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Home
●●●●● Very tough
13%
0–2 0.58 1.41 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre
8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
2–0 2.31 1.47 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
AC Connecticut Pre
6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.63 1.48 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
Scorpions SC South Pre
5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.61 1.48 Swing game
Sat May 15
TBD
Vale Rush United Pre
7th · 1-1-3 · GD -4
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.54 1.49 Swing game
Sun May 23
08:00 PM
AC Connecticut Pre
6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.63 1.49 Swing game
Sat Jun 5
TBD
Select Northeast Pre
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5
Home
●●●●● Very tough
25%
0–1 1.02 1.47 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 New England Surf Pre 4400 161+15 123.00 WWWW -0.42 -0.23 100% 1.0
2 FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 3201 43+1 62.00 WWL -0.75 +0.14 61% 4.2
3 Select Northeast Pre 4211 72+5 71.75 DWWL +0.49 -0.23 98% 2.3
4 Albany Alleycats Pre 4211 99+0 71.75 WDLW +0.07 -0.01 62% 4.2
5 Scorpions SC South Pre 4202 1011-1 61.50 LLWW -0.02 +0.02 51% 4.5
6 AC Connecticut Pre 4112 46-2 41.00 DLLW +0.11 +0.01 23% 5.5
7 Vale Rush United Pre 5113 1014-4 40.80 LDLWL -0.08 +0.10 5% 6.4
8 Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 4004 014-14 00.00 LLLL +0.27 +0.28 0% 8.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.