Force FC Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU11 · 8 teams · Force FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 09:00 AM
Hudson Sports Complex, Field 1A ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.8 for, 1.7 against · 2.79 expected points)
| Season so far | Force FC Pre | PDA SCP Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-1 | 0-0-2 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 4.3 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 8.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W | L L |
| Biggest win | 10–2 at Quickstrike FC Pre | — |
| Worst loss | 1–4 vs East Coast Surf Pre | 0–10 at East Coast Surf Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.87 | -2.54 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.12 | +2.45 |
Common opponents: East Coast Surf Pre — we 1–4; they 0–10.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
PDA SCP Pre average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.9); blanked in 2 of 2.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
PDA SCP Pre concede 8.0/game; worst result 0–10 at East Coast Surf Pre.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 91% chance; likely score 5–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Manhattan SC Pre sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above Manhattan SC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the PDA SCP Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Force FC Pre – PDA SCP Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.75 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 17%
- 3rd 47%
- 4th 23%
- 5th 9%
- 6th 3%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Coast Surf Pre | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.59) | 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 2 | Long Island Slammers Pre | 3.00 (+1.00) | 4th (1.52) | 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 3 | Manhattan SC Pre | 2.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (2.15) | A point next game |
How the results connect
5 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Force FC Pre to PDA SCP Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.13 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
PDA SCP Pre 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -16 |
Home Hudson Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
5–1 | 2.79 | 2.20 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM |
Quickstrike FC Pre 8th · 0-0-3 · GD -21 |
Home Hudson Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
6–1 | 2.87 | 2.33 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM |
SUSA FC Pre- Northeast 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Hudson Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
3–2 | 2.00 | 2.28 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 09:30 AM |
Long Island Slammers Pre 2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +2 |
Home Hudson Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
3–2 | 1.86 | 2.22 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
East Coast Surf Pre 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +20 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
2–4 | 0.47 | 2.00 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Manhattan SC Pre 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
2–3 | 0.62 | 1.84 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
PSA North Pre 5th · 1-0-3 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.89 | 1.85 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
PDA SCP Pre 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -16 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
5–1 | 2.63 | 1.92 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
SUSA FC Pre- Northeast 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
3–2 | 1.65 | 1.90 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Long Island Slammers Pre 2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.53 | 1.87 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 12:30 PM |
Manhattan SC Pre 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +16 |
Home Hudson Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
2–3 | 0.90 | 1.80 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | East Coast Surf Pre | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | +20 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.62 | -0.35 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Manhattan SC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Long Island Slammers Pre · Sat Dec 5 at SUSA FC Pre- Northeast See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Long Island Slammers Pre | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -3.23 | +0.17 | 53% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs SUSA FC Pre- Northeast · Sat Oct 24 at Quickstrike FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at East Coast Surf Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Manhattan SC Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | +16 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -2.08 | +0.11 | 99% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs East Coast Surf Pre · Sat Mar 6 vs Long Island Slammers Pre · Sun Mar 7 vs SUSA FC Pre- Northeast See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Force FC Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.12 | -0.13 | 88% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs PDA SCP Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Quickstrike FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs SUSA FC Pre- Northeast See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PSA North Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | +2.12 | -0.82 | 20% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs PDA SCP Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Quickstrike FC Pre · Sat Mar 27 vs Quickstrike FC Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SUSA FC Pre- Northeast | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.05 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Sep 26 at Long Island Slammers Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Force FC Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs East Coast Surf Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | PDA SCP Pre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +2.45 | -0.04 | 0% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at PSA North Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Quickstrike FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Force FC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Quickstrike FC Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 23 | -21 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.11 | +0.24 | 0% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Long Island Slammers Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs PSA North Pre · Sat Oct 31 at PDA SCP Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.