SUSA FC Pre- Northeast

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU11 · 8 teams · SUSA FC (all teams)

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6th

0-0-0 record · 0 played

0.00 points per game

+0 goal diff · 0–0

last 0

39% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 03:00 PM

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SUSA FC Pre- Northeast
6th · 0.00 PPG

Force FC Pre
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Hudson Sports Complex, Field 1A ↗

17% 12% 70%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.4 for, 4.3 against · 0.65 expected points)

Season so far	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast	Force FC Pre
Position	6th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-0	2-0-0
Points per game	0.00	3.00
Goals for / game	0.0	6.0
Goals against / game	0.0	1.5
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	—	W W
Biggest win	—	10–2 at Quickstrike FC Pre
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.00	+1.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	-1.89

Game plan

Respect their attack
Force FC Pre score 6.0/game — well above the league's 2.9.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 17%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Hudson Sports Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
PSA North Pre sit 5th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above PSA North Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Force FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SUSA FC Pre- Northeast – Force FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.00 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	3rd▲ up 3	2nd▲ up 4	3rd▲ up 3
Draw 1.00 PPG	5th▲ up 1	5th▲ up 1	5th▲ up 1
Loss 0.00 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

39% top 4

62% below the top 4

4.8 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 2%
3rd 7%
4th 29%
5th 32%
6th 28%
7th 1%
8th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	East Coast Surf Pre	3.00 (+3.00)	1st (2.46)	Win next game
2	Force FC Pre	3.00 (+3.00)	3rd (2.02)	Win next game
3	Long Island Slammers Pre	3.00 (+3.00)	4th (1.49)	Win next game
4	Manhattan SC Pre	2.00 (+2.00)	2nd (2.14)	A point next game
5	PSA North Pre	0.75 (+0.75)	6th (1.26)	Already ahead

Position over the season

6 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 6th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Sep 26 03:00 PM no score posted	Long Island Slammers Pre 3rd · 1-0-0 · GD +2	Away The SUSA Orlin & Cohen Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	33%	2–2	1.17	1.17	Upside
Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM	Force FC Pre 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +9	Away Hudson Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	17%	2–4	0.65	0.91	Upside
Sat Dec 5 TBD	East Coast Surf Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +17	Home	●●●●● Very tough	14%	2–4	0.52	0.78	Upside
Sat Feb 27 TBD	Quickstrike FC Pre 8th · 0-0-3 · GD -21	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	4–2	2.53	1.22	Bank it
Sun Mar 7 TBD	Manhattan SC Pre 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +16	Away	●●●●● Very tough	9%	1–4	0.38	1.05	Upside
Fri Mar 12 TBD	East Coast Surf Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +17	Away	●●●●● Very tough	8%	1–4	0.32	0.93	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Long Island Slammers Pre 3rd · 1-0-0 · GD +2	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	2–2	1.49	1.01	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 TBD	Quickstrike FC Pre 8th · 0-0-3 · GD -21	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	5–1	2.72	1.22	Bank it
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Manhattan SC Pre 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +16	Home	●●●●● Very tough	16%	1–3	0.60	1.15	Upside
Sat Apr 24 TBD	PDA SCP Pre 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -16	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	75%	4–2	2.37	1.27	Bank it
Sun Apr 25 TBD	PSA North Pre 5th · 1-0-3 · GD -7	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	2–2	1.52	1.30	Swing game
Sat May 1 TBD	Force FC Pre 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +9	Home	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–3	0.96	1.27	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	PDA SCP Pre 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -16	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	4–1	2.60	1.37	Bank it
Sun May 16 TBD	PSA North Pre 5th · 1-0-3 · GD -7	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.83	1.40	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

East Coast Surf Pre

+17

3.00

WWW

-1.25

-0.14

100%

1.3

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	10–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Force FC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Manhattan SC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Long Island Slammers Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Force FC Pre (2nd)	3–2	56%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	4–2	75%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Force FC Pre (2nd)	4–2	68%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	8–1	99%
·	Fri Mar 12	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	4–1	84%
·	Fri Apr 2	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	6–1	96%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	3–2	49%
·	Sat May 8	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	3–1	70%
·	Sat May 15	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	7–1	98%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force FC Pre

3.00

-1.89

+0.09

96%

2.8

W	Sun Sep 20	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	10–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Coast Surf Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs PDA SCP Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Quickstrike FC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	2–3	29%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	6–1	95%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	7–1	97%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	4–2	70%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	3–2	64%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	2–4	19%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	2–3	21%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	3–1	65%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	5–1	90%
·	Sat May 1	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	3–2	58%
·	Sun May 2	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	2–2	53%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	2–3	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Long Island Slammers Pre

3.00

-3.29

+0.24

49%

4.6

Sat Sep 12

Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)

2–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs SUSA FC Pre- Northeast · Sat Oct 24 at Quickstrike FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at East Coast Surf Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	4–1	80%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Force FC Pre (2nd)	2–3	21%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Force FC Pre (2nd)	2–2	30%
·	Sat May 8	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	16%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	4–1	83%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–3	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manhattan SC Pre

+16

2.00

WWL

-2.12

+0.19

99%

2.2

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	11–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs East Coast Surf Pre · Sat Mar 6 vs Long Island Slammers Pre · Sun Mar 7 vs SUSA FC Pre- Northeast See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	4–1	81%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	2–3	33%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Force FC Pre (2nd)	3–2	64%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat May 1	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun May 2	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	5–1	94%
·	Sun May 16	at	Force FC Pre (2nd)	3–2	52%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	7–1	98%
·	Sun May 23	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	3–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PSA North Pre

-7

0.75

LLLW

+2.23

-0.78

18%

5.3

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Force FC Pre (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–6

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs PDA SCP Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Quickstrike FC Pre · Sat Mar 27 vs Quickstrike FC Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Force FC Pre (2nd)	1–3	20%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat May 15	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun May 16	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun May 23	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SUSA FC Pre- Northeast

0.00

—

+0.01

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Sep 26 at Long Island Slammers Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Force FC Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs East Coast Surf Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Force FC Pre (2nd)	2–4	17%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	2–4	14%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	4–2	81%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–4	9%
·	Fri Mar 12	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	5–1	89%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	4–2	75%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Force FC Pre (2nd)	2–3	27%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	4–1	84%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA SCP Pre

-16

0.00

+2.44

+0.04

7.3

L	Sat Oct 3	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	0–10
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	0–6

Next: Sat Sep 26 at PSA North Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Quickstrike FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Force FC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	3–2	55%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Force FC Pre (2nd)	1–6	2%
·	Fri Apr 2	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–6	2%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Force FC Pre (2nd)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	2–4	14%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	1–3	13%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–5	2%
·	Sat May 15	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	1–4	8%
·	Sun May 16	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	1–4	8%
·	Sun May 23	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Jun 5	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	3–3	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Quickstrike FC Pre

-21

0.00

LLL

+1.31

+0.26

7.7

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	0–11
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Force FC Pre (2nd)	2–10
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Long Island Slammers Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs PSA North Pre · Sat Oct 31 at PDA SCP Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (3rd)	1–4	10%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	2–3	29%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Force FC Pre (2nd)	1–7	1%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	2–4	10%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–8	0%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	1–5	5%
·	Sat May 15	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–7	1%
·	Sat May 22	at	Manhattan SC Pre (4th)	1–7	1%
·	Sat Jun 5	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	3–3	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.94 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.