East Coast Surf Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU11 · 8 teams · East Coast Surf (all teams)

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1st

4-0-0 record · 4 played

3.00 points per game

+20 goal diff · 23–3

WWWWlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1

-0.62 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:45 AM

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East Coast Surf Pre
1st · 3.00 PPG

Manhattan SC Pre
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Randall's Island, Field 10 ↗ far trip

41% 18% 40%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.6 for, 2.6 against · 1.43 expected points)

Season so far	East Coast Surf Pre	Manhattan SC Pre
Position	1st	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-0	2-0-1
Points per game	3.00	2.00
Goals for / game	5.8	5.7
Goals against / game	0.8	0.3
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W W	L W W
Biggest win	10–0 vs PDA SCP Pre	11–0 at Quickstrike FC Pre
Worst loss	—	0–1 vs PSA North Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.73	+2.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.62	-2.08

Common opponents: PSA North Pre — we 6–1, 3–1; they 0–1. PDA SCP Pre — we 10–0; they 6–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Manhattan SC Pre score 5.7/game — well above the league's 2.9.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Manhattan SC Pre concede only 0.3/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 41%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 09:45 AM at Randall's Island.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:45 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Manhattan SC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (East Coast Surf Pre – Manhattan SC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.60 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.60 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.40 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we fall to at least 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

87% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.1 average finish

1st 87%
2nd 12%
3rd 1%
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

5 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link East Coast Surf Pre to Manhattan SC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

1 even

0 favour them

+3.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.35 · 7th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 09:45 AM	Manhattan SC Pre 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +16	Away far trip Randall's Island	●●●●○ Tough	41%	2–2	1.43	2.69	Upside
Sat Nov 7 01:30 PM	Long Island Slammers Pre 2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +2	Home cedar creek park	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–1	2.52	2.66	Bank it
Sat Dec 5 TBD	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	4–1	2.43	2.62	Bank it
Sun Feb 28 TBD	Force FC Pre 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +6	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	4–2	2.42	2.60	Bank it
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Quickstrike FC Pre 8th · 0-0-3 · GD -21	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	8–1	2.98	2.64	Bank it
Fri Mar 12 TBD	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	4–1	2.64	2.64	Bank it
Fri Apr 2 TBD	PDA SCP Pre 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -16	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	6–1	2.91	2.67	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 TBD	Manhattan SC Pre 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +16	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	2–2	1.76	2.59	Swing game
Sat May 8 TBD	Long Island Slammers Pre 2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +2	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	3–1	2.29	2.57	Bank it
Sat May 15 TBD	Quickstrike FC Pre 8th · 0-0-3 · GD -21	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	7–1	2.95	2.59	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

East Coast Surf Pre

+20

3.00

WWWW

-0.62

-0.35

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 24	at	Force FC Pre (4th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	10–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Manhattan SC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Long Island Slammers Pre · Sat Dec 5 at SUSA FC Pre- Northeast See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	4–1	77%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Force FC Pre (4th)	4–2	77%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	8–1	99%
·	Fri Mar 12	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	4–1	86%
·	Fri Apr 2	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	6–1	96%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	2–2	53%
·	Sat May 8	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	3–1	72%
·	Sat May 15	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	7–1	98%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Long Island Slammers Pre

3.00

-3.23

+0.17

56%

4.4

Sat Sep 12

Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)

2–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs SUSA FC Pre- Northeast · Sat Oct 24 at Quickstrike FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at East Coast Surf Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	4–1	80%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Force FC Pre (4th)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Force FC Pre (4th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat May 8	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	15%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	4–1	82%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manhattan SC Pre

+16

2.00

WWL

-2.08

+0.11

99%

2.2

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	11–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs East Coast Surf Pre · Sat Mar 6 vs Long Island Slammers Pre · Sun Mar 7 vs SUSA FC Pre- Northeast See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	4–1	80%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	2–2	30%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Force FC Pre (4th)	3–2	71%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat May 1	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun May 2	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	5–1	94%
·	Sun May 16	at	Force FC Pre (4th)	3–2	60%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	7–1	98%
·	Sun May 23	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force FC Pre

2.00

WWL

-0.12

-0.13

88%

3.3

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	10–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs PDA SCP Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Quickstrike FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs SUSA FC Pre- Northeast See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	5–1	91%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	6–1	94%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	3–2	62%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	3–2	56%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	2–4	12%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	2–3	16%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	5–1	85%
·	Sat May 1	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	3–2	49%
·	Sun May 2	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	2–2	45%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	2–3	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PSA North Pre

-7

0.75

LLLW

+2.12

-0.82

19%

5.3

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Force FC Pre (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–6

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs PDA SCP Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Quickstrike FC Pre · Sat Mar 27 vs Quickstrike FC Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Force FC Pre (4th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat May 15	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun May 16	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun May 23	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SUSA FC Pre- Northeast

0.00

—

-0.05

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Sep 26 at Long Island Slammers Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Force FC Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs East Coast Surf Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Force FC Pre (4th)	2–3	24%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–4	12%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	4–2	81%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	1–4	10%
·	Fri Mar 12	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	5–1	88%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	4–2	74%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Force FC Pre (4th)	2–3	34%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	4–1	83%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA SCP Pre

-16

0.00

+2.45

-0.04

7.2

L	Sat Oct 3	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	0–10
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sat Sep 26 at PSA North Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Quickstrike FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Force FC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	3–2	56%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Force FC Pre (4th)	1–5	4%
·	Fri Apr 2	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–6	1%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Force FC Pre (4th)	1–5	7%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	2–4	14%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	1–5	2%
·	Sat May 15	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	1–4	8%
·	Sun May 16	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	1–4	8%
·	Sun May 23	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Jun 5	at	Quickstrike FC Pre (8th)	3–3	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Quickstrike FC Pre

-21

0.00

LLL

+1.11

+0.24

7.7

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	0–11
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Force FC Pre (4th)	2–10
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Long Island Slammers Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs PSA North Pre · Sat Oct 31 at PDA SCP Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Long Island Slammers Pre (2nd)	1–4	10%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	PSA North Pre (5th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	2–3	29%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Force FC Pre (4th)	1–6	2%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	2–4	10%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–8	0%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	PSA North Pre (5th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	SUSA FC Pre- Northeast (6th)	1–5	5%
·	Sat May 15	vs	East Coast Surf Pre (1st)	1–7	1%
·	Sat May 22	at	Manhattan SC Pre (3rd)	1–7	1%
·	Sat Jun 5	vs	PDA SCP Pre (7th)	3–3	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.