Sting Pre- Rey

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU12 · 10 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)

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5th

2-1-2 record · 5 played

1.40 points per game

-3 goal diff · 5–8

DLWLWlast 5

3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.6

-0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

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Sting Pre- Rey
5th · 1.40 PPG

Dutch FC Pre
1st · 2.17 PPG

Railroad Park , Field 10 ↗

19% 26% 55%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.8 for, 1.5 against · 0.84 expected points)

Season so far	Sting Pre- Rey	Dutch FC Pre
Position	5th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-2	4-1-1
Points per game	1.40	2.17
Goals for / game	1.0	1.7
Goals against / game	1.6	0.7
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W L W L D	W L W W D
Biggest win	1–0 vs OK Energy FC Pre II	3–0 at Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez
Worst loss	0–4 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove	0–1 at OK Energy FC Pre II
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.35	+0.64
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.10	-0.09

Common opponents: Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez — we 2–2; they 3–0. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove — we 0–4; they 2–1. OK Energy FC Pre II — we 1–0; they 0–1.

Game plan

Hard to break down
Dutch FC Pre concede only 0.7/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 19%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dutch FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Pre- Rey – Dutch FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.17 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	7th▼ down 2
Win 1.67 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Draw 1.33 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Loss 1.17 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

3% top 4

97% below the top 4

5.6 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 1%
4th 2%
5th 58%
6th 25%
7th 10%
8th 4%
9th 1%
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Dutch FC Pre	2.17 (+0.77)	2nd (2.13)	11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Alpha Forms Pre	2.14 (+0.74)	1st (2.15)	11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	OK Energy FC Pre II	2.13 (+0.73)	3rd (2.13)	11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black	2.00 (+0.60)	4th (2.10)	9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

24 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Sting Pre- Rey to Dutch FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

2 even

14 favour them

-1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.06 · 4th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:30 PM	Dutch FC Pre 1st · 4-1-1 · GD +6	Home Railroad Park	●●●●● Very tough	19%	0–1	0.84	1.31	Upside
Thu Oct 29 07:15 PM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West 10th · 1-0-4 · GD -6	Home Railroad Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	1–1	1.66	1.36	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 09:30 AM	SOLAR PRE- NAZIER 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -2	Away Railroad Park	●●●●○ Tough	28%	0–0	1.18	1.33	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Dutch FC Pre

2.17

DWWLW

-0.09

-0.41

98%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West (10th)	3–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez (9th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove (8th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (4th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOLAR PRE- NAZIER (7th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Rey · Sun Nov 1 vs SOLAR PRE- MABRY See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Rey (5th)	1–0	55%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	SOLAR PRE- MABRY (6th)	1–0	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alpha Forms Pre

2.14

LWLWW

-0.11

-0.47

100%

2.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove (8th)	7–3
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Sting Pre- Rey (5th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (4th)	1–6
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West (10th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (3rd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR PRE- NAZIER (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez (9th)	6–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- MABRY See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SOLAR PRE- MABRY (6th)	2–1	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Pre II

+11

2.13

WDWDW

+0.03

—

100%

2.6

Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black

2.00

DWWDW

+0.06

-0.57

99%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez (9th)	4–1
D	Sat Oct 10	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (2nd)	6–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	SOLAR PRE- NAZIER (7th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Dutch FC Pre (1st)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	SOLAR PRE- MABRY (6th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove (8th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West (10th)	2–0	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Rey

-3

1.40

DLWLW

-0.10

-0.06

5.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR PRE- MABRY (6th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Alpha Forms Pre (2nd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (3rd)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove (8th)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez (9th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dutch FC Pre · Thu Oct 29 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West · Sun Nov 1 at SOLAR PRE- NAZIER See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dutch FC Pre (1st)	0–1	19%
·	Thu Oct 29	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West (10th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SOLAR PRE- NAZIER (7th)	0–0	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- MABRY

-4

1.17

LWWLL

-0.14

+0.60

6.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Pre- Rey (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West (10th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez (9th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (3rd)	0–4
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (4th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alpha Forms Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Dutch FC Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Alpha Forms Pre (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Dutch FC Pre (1st)	0–1	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- NAZIER

-2

0.80

LLWLD

+0.41

-0.49

6.6

D	Sun Oct 11	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (3rd)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (4th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez (9th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (2nd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Dutch FC Pre (1st)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting Pre- Rey · Thu Nov 5 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West (10th)	0–0	37%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting Pre- Rey (5th)	0–0	38%
·	Thu Nov 5	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove (8th)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove

-4

0.67

LDLLL

+0.07

+0.42

8.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (2nd)	3–7
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Dutch FC Pre (1st)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez (9th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	SOLAR PRE- MABRY (6th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Sting Pre- Rey (5th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black · Thu Nov 5 vs SOLAR PRE- NAZIER See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (4th)	1–3	9%
·	Thu Nov 5	vs	SOLAR PRE- NAZIER (7th)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez

-13

0.63

DLLLL

+0.03

—

9.4

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West

-6

0.60

LLLWL

+0.13

+0.16

8.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Dutch FC Pre (1st)	1–3
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	SOLAR PRE- MABRY (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Alpha Forms Pre (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez (9th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- NAZIER · Thu Oct 29 at Sting Pre- Rey · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SOLAR PRE- NAZIER (7th)	0–0	31%
·	Thu Oct 29	at	Sting Pre- Rey (5th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (4th)	0–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.