Alpha Forms Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU12 · 10 teams · Forms Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.2 against · 2.21 expected points)
| Season so far | Alpha Forms Pre | SOLAR PRE- MABRY |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W L | L L W W L |
| Biggest win | 6–1 vs Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez | 1–0 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove |
| Worst loss | 1–6 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black | 0–4 vs OK Energy FC Pre II |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.55 | -0.47 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.11 | -0.14 |
Common opponents: Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez — we 6–1; they 1–0. OK Energy FC Pre II — we 1–3; they 0–4. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West — we 2–1; they 1–2. Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black — we 1–6; they 1–1. Sting Pre- Rey — we 2–1; they 0–1. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove — we 7–3; they 1–0.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
SOLAR PRE- MABRY average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 2 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 68% / draw 17% / loss 15%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Dutch FC Pre sit 1st on 2.17 PPG; we are on 2.14.A point moves us above Dutch FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SOLAR PRE- MABRY game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Alpha Forms Pre – SOLAR PRE- MABRY) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 21%
- 2nd 34%
- 3rd 22%
- 4th 23%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dutch FC Pre | 2.17 (+0.03) | 2nd (2.13) | A point next game |
How the results connect
27 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Alpha Forms Pre to SOLAR PRE- MABRY through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.47 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
SOLAR PRE- MABRY 6th · 2-1-3 · GD -4 |
Home Railroad Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.21 | 2.15 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Dutch FC Pre | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 13 | 2.17 | DWWLW | -0.09 | -0.41 | 98% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Rey · Sun Nov 1 vs SOLAR PRE- MABRY See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Alpha Forms Pre | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 15 | 2.14 | LWLWW | -0.11 | -0.47 | 100% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- MABRY See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | OK Energy FC Pre II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 17 | 2.13 | WDWDW | +0.03 | — | 100% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 4 | Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 12 | 2.00 | DWWDW | +0.06 | -0.57 | 99% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sting Pre- Rey | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 | 1.40 | DLWLW | -0.10 | -0.06 | 3% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dutch FC Pre · Thu Oct 29 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West · Sun Nov 1 at SOLAR PRE- NAZIER See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SOLAR PRE- MABRY | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 7 | 1.17 | LWWLL | -0.14 | +0.60 | 0% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alpha Forms Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Dutch FC Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | SOLAR PRE- NAZIER | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 | 0.80 | LLWLD | +0.41 | -0.49 | 0% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting Pre- Rey · Thu Nov 5 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 4 | 0.67 | LDLLL | +0.07 | +0.42 | 0% | 8.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black · Thu Nov 5 vs SOLAR PRE- NAZIER See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 5 | 0.63 | DLLLL | +0.03 | — | 0% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 10 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLWL | +0.13 | +0.16 | 0% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- NAZIER · Thu Oct 29 at Sting Pre- Rey · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.