Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black

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Railroad Park , Field 9 ↗

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.0 against · 2.48 expected points)

Common opponents: SOLAR PRE- MABRY — we 1–1; they 0–1. Dutch FC Pre — we 1–1; they 1–2. Alpha Forms Pre — we 6–1; they 3–7. OK Energy FC Pre II — we 0–0; they 1–3. Sting WTX Pre- Jimenez — we 4–1; they 2–2.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove concede 2.5/game; worst result 3–7 vs Alpha Forms Pre.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at OK Energy FC Pre II.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 3–1.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:30 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  OK Energy FC Pre II sit 3rd on 2.13 PPG; we are on 2.00.

  A point moves us above OK Energy FC Pre II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black – FC Dallas Youth Pre- Lovegrove) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

1. 1st 37%
2. 2nd 23%
3. 3rd 14%
4. 4th 25%
5. 5th 1%
6. 6th
7. 7th
8. 8th
9. 9th
10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).