Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU10 · 10 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
Fairview Soccer Park , Field 1A ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.9 against · 2.06 expected points)
| Season so far | Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / game | 3.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L W | W W L D L |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black | 4–0 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black |
| Worst loss | 2–6 at DKSC Pre- Chavez | 1–3 vs DKSC Pre- Chavez |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.11 | +0.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.15 | -0.43 |
Common opponents: Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black — we 9–0; they 4–0. Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez — we 8–0; they 2–3. DKSC Pre- Chavez — we 2–6; they 1–3. SOLAR PRE- ADAMES — we 0–1; they 2–3.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select, 0–1 at SOLAR PRE- ADAMES.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 64% / draw 16% / loss 21%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave – FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
6th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 50%
- 5th 23%
- 6th 13%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 4%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SOLAR PRE- ADAMES | 2.67 (+1.47) | 1st (2.62) | 16 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select | 2.50 (+1.30) | 2nd (2.50) | 14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | DKSC Pre- Chavez | 2.17 (+0.97) | 3rd (2.35) | 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
19 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave to FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.16 · 3rd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff 6th · 2-1-3 · GD +1 |
Home Fairview Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–1 | 2.06 | 1.34 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 08:00 AM |
SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN 5th · 2-1-3 · GD +8 |
Home Railroad Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.65 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 03:30 PM |
FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren 7th · 1-2-2 · GD -4 |
Away Railroad Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 1.45 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | SOLAR PRE- ADAMES | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 16 | 2.67 | WDWWW | +0.80 | -2.46 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 0 | +28 | 20 | 2.50 | DWWWW | -0.43 | — | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 3 | DKSC Pre- Chavez | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 5 | +24 | 13 | 2.17 | DWWLW | +0.29 | -2.89 | 100% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 6 | 1.20 | WLWLL | +0.15 | +0.16 | 50% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff · Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 7 | 1.17 | DWWLL | -0.43 | -0.64 | 34% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Harvey · Sun Oct 25 at Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 7 | 1.17 | LDLWW | -0.43 | -0.64 | 11% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Harvey See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 | 1.00 | WDDLL | +1.05 | -0.13 | 5% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- ADAMES · Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting Pre- Harvey See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLWL | -0.03 | +0.16 | 0% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Sting Pre- Harvey · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC Pre- Chavez See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sting Pre- Harvey | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 31 | -19 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | +0.21 | -0.17 | 1% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez · Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 45 | -44 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.12 | +1.81 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR PRE- ADAMES · Sun Nov 1 at DKSC Pre- Chavez See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.