SOLAR PRE- ADAMES

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU10 · 10 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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1st

5-1-0 record · 6 played

2.67 points per game

+7 goal diff · 9–2

WDWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.6

+0.80 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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SOLAR PRE- ADAMES
1st · 2.67 PPG

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren
7th · 1.00 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 3A ↗

61% 24% 15%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.6 for, 0.7 against · 2.07 expected points)

Season so far	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren
Position	1st	7th
Record (W-D-L)	5-1-0	1-2-2
Points per game	2.67	1.00
Goals for / game	1.5	1.0
Goals against / game	0.3	1.8
Clean sheets	5	1
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	W W W D W	L L D D W
Biggest win	3–0 at Sting Pre- Harvey	1–0 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez
Worst loss	—	0–3 at West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.90	-0.30
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.80	+1.05

Common opponents: SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN — we 1–0; they 2–2. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff — we 3–2; they 2–2. West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select — we 0–0; they 0–3. DKSC Pre- Chavez — we 1–0; they 0–2.

Game plan

They struggle to score
FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 2 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 61% / draw 24% / loss 15%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- ADAMES – FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.71 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.71 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.43 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.29 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

59% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.6 average finish

1st 59%
2nd 26%
3rd 15%
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

20 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- ADAMES to FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us

1 even

4 favour them

+1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -2.46 · 8th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren 7th · 1-2-2 · GD -4	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	1–0	2.07	2.58	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 09:30 AM	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -44	Away Railroad Park	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	3–0	2.87	2.62	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

SOLAR PRE- ADAMES

2.67

WDWWW

+0.80

-2.46

100%

1.6

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave (4th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	DKSC Pre- Chavez (3rd)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Harvey (9th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN (5th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (7th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (10th)	3–0	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select

+28

2.50

DWWWW

-0.43

—

100%

1.6

DKSC Pre- Chavez

+24

2.17

DWWLW

+0.29

-2.89

100%

2.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (7th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave (4th)	6–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Sting Pre- Harvey (9th)	18–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff (6th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez (8th)	5–1	91%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (10th)	9–0	100%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave

1.20

WLWLL

+0.15

+0.16

47%

5.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (1st)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	DKSC Pre- Chavez (3rd)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez (8th)	8–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (10th)	9–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff · Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff (6th)	3–1	64%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN (5th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (7th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN

1.17

DWWLL

-0.43

-0.64

36%

5.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff (6th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (10th)	10–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (1st)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Harvey · Sun Oct 25 at Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Pre- Harvey (9th)	5–2	88%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave (4th)	2–2	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff

1.17

LDLWW

-0.43

-0.64

12%

6.1

W	Thu Oct 22	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (10th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN (5th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez (8th)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	DKSC Pre- Chavez (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Harvey See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave (4th)	1–3	21%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Pre- Harvey (9th)	4–2	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren

-4

1.00

WDDLL

+1.05

-0.13

6.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	DKSC Pre- Chavez (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff (6th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN (5th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez (8th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- ADAMES · Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting Pre- Harvey See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (1st)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting Pre- Harvey (9th)	3–2	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez

-10

1.00

WLLWL

-0.03

+0.16

7.7

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	0–8
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff (6th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave (4th)	0–8
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (10th)	8–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (7th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Sting Pre- Harvey · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC Pre- Chavez See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Sting Pre- Harvey (9th)	4–4	45%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	DKSC Pre- Chavez (3rd)	1–5	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Harvey

-19

0.75

LLLW

+0.21

-0.17

8.4

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (10th)	11–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	DKSC Pre- Chavez (3rd)	1–18
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez · Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez (8th)	4–4	41%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN (5th)	2–5	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff (6th)	2–4	21%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren (7th)	2–3	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black

-44

0.00

LLLLL

+0.12

+1.81

10.0

L	Thu Oct 22	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff (6th)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sting Pre- Harvey (9th)	1–11
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN (5th)	0–10
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez (8th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave (4th)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR PRE- ADAMES · Sun Nov 1 at DKSC Pre- Chavez See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SOLAR PRE- ADAMES (1st)	0–3	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	DKSC Pre- Chavez (3rd)	0–9	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.