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DKSC Pre- Chavez

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU10 · 10 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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3rd
4-1-1 record · 6 played
2.17 points per game
+24 goal diff · 29–5
DWWLWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8
+0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 08:30 AM

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DKSC Pre- Chavez
3rd · 2.17 PPG
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Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez
8th · 1.00 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 3A ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.2 for, 1.3 against · 2.78 expected points)

Season so farDKSC Pre- ChavezDallas Texans Pre- Ramirez
Position3rd8th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-12-0-4
Points per game2.171.00
Goals for / game4.82.0
Goals against / game0.83.7
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)W L W W DL W L L W
Biggest win18–1 vs Sting Pre- Harvey8–0 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black
Worst loss0–1 vs SOLAR PRE- ADAMES0–8 at Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.72-1.16
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.29-0.03

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff — we 3–1; they 3–2. West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select — we 0–0; they 0–8. Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave — we 6–2; they 0–8. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren — we 2–0; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select, 0–1 vs SOLAR PRE- ADAMES.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 91% chance; likely score 5–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 08:30 AM at Fairview Soccer Park .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC Pre- Chavez – Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.29 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.29 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
1.86 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 15%
  3. 3rd 85%
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR PRE- ADAMES 2.67 (+0.50) 1st (2.62) 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select 2.50 (+0.33) 2nd (2.50) 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

22 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC Pre- Chavez to Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

19 favour us
3 favour them
+5.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 2–3 2–0 1–0 0–0 8–0 6–2 8–0 2–2 0–1 3–2 1–0 3–1 4–0 0–8 2–2 2–0 3–0 DKSC Pre- Chavez 3rd FC Dallas Youth Pre… 6th FC Dallas Youth Pre… 7th West Side Alliance … 2nd Sting Pre- Bagwell … 4th SOLAR PRE- ADAMES 1st SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN 5th Dallas Cosmos SC Pr… 10th Dallas Texans Pre- … 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -2.89 · 9th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
08:30 AM		 Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -10		 Away
Fairview Soccer Park 		●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 5–1 2.78 2.25 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
12:30 PM		 Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black
10th · 0-0-6 · GD -44		 Home
Railroad Park 		●○○○○ Favorable
100%		 9–0 3.00 2.35 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR PRE- ADAMES 6510 92+7 162.67 WDWWW +0.80 -2.46 100% 1.6
2 West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select 8620 280+28 202.50 DWWWW -0.43 — 100% 1.6
3 DKSC Pre- Chavez 6411 295+24 132.17 DWWLW +0.29 -2.89 100% 2.8
4 Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave 5203 1910+9 61.20 WLWLL +0.15 +0.16 47% 5.0
5 SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN 6213 168+8 71.17 DWWLL -0.43 -0.64 35% 5.0
6 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff 6213 1312+1 71.17 LDLWW -0.43 -0.64 12% 6.0
7 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren 5122 59-4 51.00 WDDLL +1.05 -0.13 5% 6.8
8 Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez 6204 1222-10 61.00 WLLWL -0.03 +0.16 0% 7.8
9 Sting Pre- Harvey 4103 1231-19 30.75 LLLW +0.21 -0.17 1% 8.4
10 Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black 6006 145-44 00.00 LLLLL +0.12 +1.81 0% 10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.