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FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU10 · 10 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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6th
2-1-3 record · 6 played
1.17 points per game
+1 goal diff · 13–12
LDLWWlast 5
12% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.1
-0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff
6th · 1.17 PPG
at
Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave
4th · 1.20 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 1A ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.9 for, 3.2 against · 0.78 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth Pre- NiehoffSting Pre- Bagwell Brave
Position6th4th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-32-0-3
Points per game1.171.20
Goals for / game2.23.8
Goals against / game2.02.0
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W L D LL L W L W
Biggest win4–0 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black9–0 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black
Worst loss1–3 vs DKSC Pre- Chavez2–6 at DKSC Pre- Chavez
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.01+1.11
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.43+0.15

Common opponents: DKSC Pre- Chavez — we 1–3; they 2–6. SOLAR PRE- ADAMES — we 2–3; they 0–1. Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez — we 2–3; they 8–0. Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black — we 4–0; they 9–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 21%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Fairview Soccer Park .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN sit 5th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.17.

    A point moves us above SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff – Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 8th▼ down 2
Win
1.43 PPG		 4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 1
Draw
1.14 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 8th▼ down 2
Loss
1.00 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–3 loss we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
12% top 4
88% below the top 4
6.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th 12%
  5. 5th 19%
  6. 6th 36%
  7. 7th 19%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR PRE- ADAMES 2.67 (+1.50) 1st (2.62) 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select 2.50 (+1.33) 2nd (2.50) 13 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 DKSC Pre- Chavez 2.17 (+1.00) 3rd (2.35) 11 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave 1.20 (+0.03) 4th (1.45) A point next game
5 SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN 1.17 (+0.00) 5th (1.36) A point next game

How the results connect

19 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff to Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
2 even
8 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 1–0 1–3 6–2 4–0 0–9 2–3 0–8 2–2 0–3 3–0 2–1 0–1 0–0 10–0 0–2 8–0 0–2 0–0 FC Dallas Youth Pre… 6th SOLAR PRE- ADAMES 1st DKSC Pre- Chavez 3rd Dallas Cosmos SC Pr… 10th Dallas Texans Pre- … 8th FC Dallas Youth Pre… 7th SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN 5th West Side Alliance … 2nd Sting Pre- Bagwell … 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 22

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.64 · 7th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:00 AM		 Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave
4th · 2-0-3 · GD +9		 Away
Fairview Soccer Park 		●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–3 0.78 1.11 Upside
Sat Oct 31
08:30 AM		 Sting Pre- Harvey
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -19		 Away
Fairview Soccer Park 		●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 4–2 2.11 1.24 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR PRE- ADAMES 6510 92+7 162.67 WDWWW +0.80 -2.46 100% 1.6
2 West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select 8620 280+28 202.50 DWWWW -0.43 — 100% 1.6
3 DKSC Pre- Chavez 6411 295+24 132.17 DWWLW +0.29 -2.89 100% 2.8
4 Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave 5203 1910+9 61.20 WLWLL +0.15 +0.16 48% 5.0
5 SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN 6213 168+8 71.17 DWWLL -0.43 -0.64 35% 5.0
6 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff 6213 1312+1 71.17 LDLWW -0.43 -0.64 12% 6.1
7 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren 5122 59-4 51.00 WDDLL +1.05 -0.13 5% 6.8
8 Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez 6204 1222-10 61.00 WLLWL -0.03 +0.16 0% 7.7
9 Sting Pre- Harvey 4103 1231-19 30.75 LLLW +0.21 -0.17 1% 8.4
10 Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black 6006 145-44 00.00 LLLLL +0.12 +1.81 0% 10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.