SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU10 · 10 teams · Solar SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
Fairview Soccer Park , Field 3A ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–2 (expected goals 6.0 for, 2.1 against · 2.70 expected points)
| Season so far | SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN | Sting Pre- Harvey |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-3 | 1-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.17 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 7.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W W D | W L L L |
| Biggest win | 10–0 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black | 11–1 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black |
| Worst loss | 0–2 at West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select | 1–18 at DKSC Pre- Chavez |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.77 | -2.39 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.43 | +0.21 |
Common opponents: SOLAR PRE- ADAMES — we 0–1; they 0–3. Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black — we 10–0; they 11–1. West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select — we 0–2; they 0–9.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Sting Pre- Harvey concede 7.8/game; worst result 1–18 at DKSC Pre- Chavez.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs SOLAR PRE- ADAMES, 0–2 at West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 88% chance; likely score 5–2.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave sit 4th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.17.A point moves us above Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sting Pre- Harvey game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN – Sting Pre- Harvey) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.43 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.43 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.14 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 5th— holds | 7th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–2 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 35%
- 5th 38%
- 6th 19%
- 7th 5%
- 8th 3%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SOLAR PRE- ADAMES | 2.67 (+1.50) | 1st (2.62) | 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select | 2.50 (+1.33) | 2nd (2.50) | 13 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | DKSC Pre- Chavez | 2.17 (+1.00) | 3rd (2.35) | 11 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave | 1.20 (+0.03) | 4th (1.45) | A point next game |
How the results connect
16 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN to Sting Pre- Harvey through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.64 · 6th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
Sting Pre- Harvey 9th · 1-0-3 · GD -19 |
Home Fairview Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
5–2 | 2.70 | 1.39 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 08:00 AM |
Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave 4th · 2-0-3 · GD +9 |
Away Railroad Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.17 | 1.36 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | SOLAR PRE- ADAMES | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 16 | 2.67 | WDWWW | +0.80 | -2.46 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 0 | +28 | 20 | 2.50 | DWWWW | -0.43 | — | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 3 | DKSC Pre- Chavez | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 5 | +24 | 13 | 2.17 | DWWLW | +0.29 | -2.89 | 100% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 6 | 1.20 | WLWLL | +0.15 | +0.16 | 48% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff · Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 7 | 1.17 | DWWLL | -0.43 | -0.64 | 35% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Harvey · Sun Oct 25 at Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 7 | 1.17 | LDLWW | -0.43 | -0.64 | 10% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Harvey See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Fondren | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 | 1.00 | WDDLL | +1.05 | -0.13 | 5% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- ADAMES · Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Bagwell Brave · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting Pre- Harvey See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLWL | -0.03 | +0.16 | 0% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Sting Pre- Harvey · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC Pre- Chavez See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sting Pre- Harvey | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 31 | -19 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | +0.21 | -0.17 | 1% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez · Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- HOLGUIN · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Niehoff See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 45 | -44 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.12 | +1.81 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR PRE- ADAMES · Sun Nov 1 at DKSC Pre- Chavez See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.