TableChase Clubs

PUNSC Pre- ll

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Atlantic GU12 · 10 teams · Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (all teams)

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1st
5-0-0 record · 5 played
3.00 points per game
+17 goal diff · 23–6
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.4
-0.88 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:45 AM

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PUNSC Pre- ll
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
FC DELCO Pre- ll
2nd · 2.29 PPG

Parkside Fields, Field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 3.0 for, 2.2 against · 1.81 expected points)

Season so farPUNSC Pre- llFC DELCO Pre- ll
Position1st2nd
Record (W-D-L)5-0-05-1-1
Points per game3.002.29
Goals for / game4.62.9
Goals against / game1.21.7
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W W WW L D W W
Biggest win6–0 at Match Fit Surf Pre- II4–1 vs PDA Blue Pre- ll
Worst loss—3–6 at HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.79+0.61
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.88-0.43

Common opponents: Pipeline SC Pre- ll — we 4–1; they 3–1. Bethesda SC Pre- ll — we 6–2; they 4–2. Maryland United FC Pre- II — we 3–0; they 2–1. Match Fit Surf Pre- II — we 6–0; they 3–0. Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll — we 4–3; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 55% / draw 17% / loss 28%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:45 AM at Parkside Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC DELCO Pre- ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PUNSC Pre- ll – FC DELCO Pre- ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.67 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.67 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.50 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

75% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.4 average finish
  1. 1st 75%
  2. 2nd 16%
  3. 3rd 6%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

20 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link PUNSC Pre- ll to FC DELCO Pre- ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us
2 even
3 favour them
+1.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–3 1–1 4–1 1–3 3–0 1–2 6–2 2–4 6–0 0–3 0–3 1–4 0–2 1–4 1–1 3–3 1–4 PUNSC Pre- ll 1st Penn Fusion Soccer … 6th Pipeline SC Pre- ll 7th Maryland United FC … 8th Bethesda SC Pre- ll 9th Match Fit Surf Pre-… 10th PDA Blue Pre- ll 5th FC DELCO Pre- ll 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 5th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:45 AM
FC DELCO Pre- ll
2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +8
Away far trip
Parkside Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–2 1.81 2.80 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +10
Away far trip
Council Rock South High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.54 2.62 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:45 PM
PDA Blue Pre- ll
5th · 2-2-2 · GD +1
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.37 2.59 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
PDA White Pre- One ll
3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +8
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.92 2.52 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
01:15 PM
Pipeline SC Pre- ll
7th · 2-1-3 · GD -1
Away far trip
Baltimore Polytechnic Institute
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–1 2.14 2.48 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
PDA White Pre- One ll
3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +8
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.60 2.40 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Maryland United FC Pre- II
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -5
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.64 2.42 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Match Fit Surf Pre- II
10th · 0-0-6 · GD -27
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.96 2.46 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
6th · 1-4-1 · GD +2
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–2 1.96 2.42 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
FC DELCO Pre- ll
2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +8
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–1 2.13 2.40 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD
Bethesda SC Pre- ll
9th · 0-1-5 · GD -13
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.63 2.42 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +10
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
3–2 1.87 2.39 Swing game
Sat May 15
10:30 AM
PDA Blue Pre- ll
5th · 2-2-2 · GD +1
Away far trip
PDA Main Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.10 2.37 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 PUNSC Pre- ll 5500 236+17 153.00 WWWWW -0.88 +0.08 100% 1.4
2 FC DELCO Pre- ll 7511 2012+8 162.29 WWDLW -0.43 +0.20 81% 3.5
3 PDA White Pre- One ll 5320 157+8 112.20 WDWWD -0.19 -0.03 90% 2.8
4 HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red 5311 177+10 102.00 WLDWW -0.36 +0.01 89% 3.0
5 PDA Blue Pre- ll 6222 1413+1 81.33 LWWLD -0.37 +0.18 9% 6.0
6 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 6141 1513+2 71.17 DWDDL +0.60 -0.31 25% 5.2
7 Pipeline SC Pre- ll 6213 1112-1 71.17 WLWLD +0.23 -0.09 5% 6.4
8 Maryland United FC Pre- II 4103 510-5 30.75 LLWL -0.17 +0.15 0% 8.0
9 Bethesda SC Pre- ll 6015 720-13 10.17 LLLLD +0.62 -0.10 0% 8.8
10 Match Fit Surf Pre- II 6006 128-27 00.00 LLLLL +0.60 +0.16 0% 10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.