Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll

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Morris Catholic High School, Field 1 Upper ↗

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.4 for, 0.8 against · 2.64 expected points)

Common opponents: PDA Blue Pre- ll — we 3–3; they 0–3. PDA White Pre- One ll — we 3–3; they 0–6. HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red — we 1–1; they 0–6. FC DELCO Pre- ll — we 1–1; they 0–3. PUNSC Pre- ll — we 3–4; they 0–6. Maryland United FC Pre- II — we 0–0; they 1–4.

• They struggle to score
  Match Fit Surf Pre- II average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 5 of 6.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Match Fit Surf Pre- II concede 4.7/game; worst result 0–6 vs PDA White Pre- One ll.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 85% chance; likely score 3–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Match Fit Surf Pre- II have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 09:30 AM at Morris Catholic High School.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:30 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  Pipeline SC Pre- ll sit 6th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.14.

  A point moves us above Pipeline SC Pre- ll on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Match Fit Surf Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll – Match Fit Surf Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

1. 1st <1%
2. 2nd 1%
3. 3rd 4%
4. 4th 11%
5. 5th 35%
6. 6th 27%
7. 7th 18%
8. 8th 3%
9. 9th <1%
10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.28 PPG if we win out).