Match Fit Surf Pre- II
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Atlantic GU12 · 10 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:15 AM
Morris Catholic High School, Field 1 Upper ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.9 for, 3.0 against · 0.36 expected points)
| Season so far | Match Fit Surf Pre- II | Pipeline SC Pre- ll |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-6 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / game | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 4.7 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 5 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | D L W L W |
| Biggest win | — | 4–0 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II |
| Worst loss | 0–6 vs PDA White Pre- One ll | 1–4 at PUNSC Pre- ll |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.73 | -0.08 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.60 | +0.23 |
Common opponents: PDA White Pre- One ll — we 0–6; they 1–1. PDA Blue Pre- ll — we 0–3; they 2–4. FC DELCO Pre- ll — we 0–3; they 1–3. PUNSC Pre- ll — we 0–6; they 1–4. Maryland United FC Pre- II — we 1–4; they 4–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–6 vs PDA White Pre- One ll, 0–6 at HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red, 0–3 vs PDA Blue Pre- ll, 0–3 at FC DELCO Pre- ll, 0–6 vs PUNSC Pre- ll.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 8%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Bethesda SC Pre- ll sit 9th on 0.17 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Bethesda SC Pre- ll on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Pipeline SC Pre- ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf Pre- II – Pipeline SC Pre- ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Win 0.43 PPG |
9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 | 10th— holds |
| Draw 0.14 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th 4%
- 10th 96%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PUNSC Pre- ll | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.37) | 54 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC DELCO Pre- ll | 2.29 (+2.29) | 4th (1.86) | 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 3 | PDA White Pre- One ll | 2.20 (+2.20) | 2nd (1.99) | 40 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 4 | HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red | 2.00 (+2.00) | 3rd (1.95) | 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 5 | PDA Blue Pre- ll | 1.33 (+1.33) | 6th (1.38) | 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 6 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll | 1.17 (+1.17) | 5th (1.54) | 22 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 7 | Pipeline SC Pre- ll | 1.17 (+1.17) | 7th (1.30) | 22 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 8 | Maryland United FC Pre- II | 0.75 (+0.75) | 8th (0.91) | 14 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 9 | Bethesda SC Pre- ll | 0.17 (+0.17) | 9th (0.66) | A point next game |
How the results connect
19 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Match Fit Surf Pre- II to Pipeline SC Pre- ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.16 · 3rd hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:15 AM |
Pipeline SC Pre- ll 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home Morris Catholic High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–3 | 0.36 | 0.05 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 10:30 AM |
Bethesda SC Pre- ll 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -13 |
Away Maryland Soccerplex |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.52 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 09:30 AM |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 6th · 1-4-1 · GD +2 |
Home Morris Catholic High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.22 | 0.12 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
PDA White Pre- One ll 3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.08 | 0.12 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 27 TBD |
HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.12 | 0.12 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
FC DELCO Pre- ll 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–4 | 0.18 | 0.12 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
PUNSC Pre- ll 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–6 | 0.03 | 0.12 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Maryland United FC Pre- II 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.57 | 0.15 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 01:15 PM |
Pipeline SC Pre- ll 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -1 |
Away Baltimore Polytechnic Institute |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.24 | 0.15 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Bethesda SC Pre- ll 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -13 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.72 | 0.19 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 6th · 1-4-1 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–4 | 0.13 | 0.19 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 09:00 AM |
PDA Blue Pre- ll 5th · 2-2-2 · GD +1 |
Away PDA Main Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–4 | 0.18 | 0.19 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PUNSC Pre- ll | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.88 | +0.08 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC DELCO Pre- ll · Sat Oct 31 at HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red · Sat Nov 7 vs PDA Blue Pre- ll See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC DELCO Pre- ll | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDLW | -0.43 | +0.20 | 80% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PUNSC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 at PDA White Pre- One ll · Sat Mar 20 at Bethesda SC Pre- ll See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | PDA White Pre- One ll | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 11 | 2.20 | WDWWD | -0.19 | -0.03 | 90% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Bethesda SC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 vs FC DELCO Pre- ll · Sat Nov 14 at PUNSC Pre- ll See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 10 | 2.00 | WLDWW | -0.36 | +0.01 | 89% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PDA Blue Pre- ll · Sat Oct 31 vs PUNSC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 at Pipeline SC Pre- ll See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PDA Blue Pre- ll | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 8 | 1.33 | LWWLD | -0.37 | +0.18 | 9% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red · Sat Nov 7 at PUNSC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 14 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 7 | 1.17 | DWDDL | +0.60 | -0.31 | 27% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II · Sun Nov 8 at Match Fit Surf Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 vs Pipeline SC Pre- ll See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pipeline SC Pre- ll | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 | 1.17 | WLWLD | +0.23 | -0.09 | 6% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Match Fit Surf Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 vs HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red · Sat Nov 14 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Maryland United FC Pre- II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | -0.17 | +0.15 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 at Bethesda SC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 8 vs HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Bethesda SC Pre- ll | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLD | +0.62 | -0.10 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PDA White Pre- One ll · Sat Oct 31 vs Match Fit Surf Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Match Fit Surf Pre- II | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 28 | -27 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.60 | +0.16 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pipeline SC Pre- ll · Sat Oct 31 at Bethesda SC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 8 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.