HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Atlantic GU12 · 10 teams · HEX FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
PDA Main Complex, Field 1B ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.0 against · 1.80 expected points)
| Season so far | HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red | PDA Blue Pre- ll |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / game | 3.4 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D L W | D L W W L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs Match Fit Surf Pre- II | 3–0 at Match Fit Surf Pre- II |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs PDA White Pre- One ll | 1–4 at FC DELCO Pre- ll |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.10 | +0.08 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.36 | -0.37 |
Common opponents: Match Fit Surf Pre- II — we 6–0; they 3–0. PDA White Pre- One ll — we 1–2; they 2–3. Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll — we 1–1; they 3–3. Bethesda SC Pre- ll — we 3–1; they 1–1. FC DELCO Pre- ll — we 6–3; they 1–4.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 54% / draw 18% / loss 28%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at PDA Main Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the PDA Blue Pre- ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red – PDA Blue Pre- ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.17 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.17 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.83 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 11%
- 2nd 27%
- 3rd 30%
- 4th 21%
- 5th 7%
- 6th 3%
- 7th 1%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.72 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PUNSC Pre- ll | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.37) | 44 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 2 | FC DELCO Pre- ll | 2.29 (+0.29) | 4th (1.86) | 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 3 | PDA White Pre- One ll | 2.20 (+0.20) | 2nd (1.99) | 30 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
How the results connect
20 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red to PDA Blue Pre- ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 6th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
PDA Blue Pre- ll 5th · 2-2-2 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
PDA Main Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.80 | 1.97 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
PUNSC Pre- ll 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17 |
Home Council Rock South High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.28 | 1.87 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:15 PM |
Pipeline SC Pre- ll 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Baltimore Polytechnic Institute |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 1.87 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
Maryland United FC Pre- II 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Indian Creek |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.21 | 1.91 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Maryland United FC Pre- II 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.44 | 1.96 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 27 TBD |
Match Fit Surf Pre- II 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -27 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.84 | 2.04 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
PDA White Pre- One ll 3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.31 | 1.98 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 6th · 1-4-1 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.96 | 1.98 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Bethesda SC Pre- ll 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -13 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–1 | 2.61 | 2.02 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
FC DELCO Pre- ll 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–2 | 1.51 | 1.99 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
PDA Blue Pre- ll 5th · 2-2-2 · GD +1 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
3–1 | 2.10 | 2.00 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
PUNSC Pre- ll 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
2–3 | 0.96 | 1.93 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Pipeline SC Pre- ll 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.14 | 1.95 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PUNSC Pre- ll | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.88 | +0.08 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC DELCO Pre- ll · Sat Oct 31 at HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red · Sat Nov 7 vs PDA Blue Pre- ll See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC DELCO Pre- ll | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDLW | -0.43 | +0.20 | 81% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PUNSC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 at PDA White Pre- One ll · Sat Mar 20 at Bethesda SC Pre- ll See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | PDA White Pre- One ll | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 11 | 2.20 | WDWWD | -0.19 | -0.03 | 92% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Bethesda SC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 vs FC DELCO Pre- ll · Sat Nov 14 at PUNSC Pre- ll See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 10 | 2.00 | WLDWW | -0.36 | +0.01 | 89% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PDA Blue Pre- ll · Sat Oct 31 vs PUNSC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 at Pipeline SC Pre- ll See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PDA Blue Pre- ll | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 8 | 1.33 | LWWLD | -0.37 | +0.18 | 8% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red · Sat Nov 7 at PUNSC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 14 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 7 | 1.17 | DWDDL | +0.60 | -0.31 | 25% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II · Sun Nov 8 at Match Fit Surf Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 vs Pipeline SC Pre- ll See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pipeline SC Pre- ll | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 | 1.17 | WLWLD | +0.23 | -0.09 | 5% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Match Fit Surf Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 vs HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red · Sat Nov 14 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Maryland United FC Pre- II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | -0.17 | +0.15 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 at Bethesda SC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 8 vs HEX FC Bucks Pre- Red See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Bethesda SC Pre- ll | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLD | +0.62 | -0.10 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PDA White Pre- One ll · Sat Oct 31 vs Match Fit Surf Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Match Fit Surf Pre- II | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 28 | -27 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.60 | +0.16 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pipeline SC Pre- ll · Sat Oct 31 at Bethesda SC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 8 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.