Pipeline SC Pre- ll

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Morris Catholic High School, Field 1 Upper ↗

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.0 for, 0.9 against · 2.52 expected points)

Common opponents: PUNSC Pre- ll — we 1–4; they 0–6. Maryland United FC Pre- II — we 4–0; they 1–4. FC DELCO Pre- ll — we 1–3; they 0–3. PDA Blue Pre- ll — we 2–4; they 0–3. PDA White Pre- One ll — we 1–1; they 0–6.

• They struggle to score
  Match Fit Surf Pre- II average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 5 of 6.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Match Fit Surf Pre- II concede 4.7/game; worst result 0–6 vs PDA White Pre- One ll.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 3–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Match Fit Surf Pre- II have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 11:15 AM at Morris Catholic High School.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll sit 6th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.17.

  A point moves us above Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Match Fit Surf Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pipeline SC Pre- ll – Match Fit Surf Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

1. 1st <1%
2. 2nd <1%
3. 3rd 1%
4. 4th 5%
5. 5th 14%
6. 6th 27%
7. 7th 43%
8. 8th 10%
9. 9th 1%
10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.39 PPG if we win out).