SLSG Navy Academy I Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Heartland GU11 · 12 teams · St. Louis Scott Gallagher (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 09:15 AM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.7 for, 0.9 against · 2.68 expected points)
| Season so far | SLSG Navy Academy I Pre | SLSG Green Academy I Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 2-0-3 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals for / game | 5.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W L L L W |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre | 4–0 vs Toca Fusion Elite Pre |
| Worst loss | — | 0–6 at Missouri Rush Pre- Blue |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.94 | -0.28 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.36 | +0.84 |
Common opponents: Sporting Blue Valley Pre — we 5–1; they 1–3. Toca Fusion Elite Pre — we 6–0; they 4–0. Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I — we 7–1; they 1–0. Kansas City Athletics Pre — we 1–0; they 1–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
SLSG Green Academy I Pre average 1.4 goals/game (league avg 2.9); blanked in 1 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:15 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SLSG Green Academy I Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SLSG Navy Academy I Pre – SLSG Green Academy I Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 86%
- 2nd 9%
- 3rd 5%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
23 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link SLSG Navy Academy I Pre to SLSG Green Academy I Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -1.25 · 9th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 09:15 AM |
SLSG Green Academy I Pre 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -4 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
3–0 | 2.68 | 2.95 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 TBD |
Sporting Iowa Pre 8th · 1-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–1 | 2.62 | 2.90 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 TBD |
FC United (Iowa) Pre 5th · 1-1-1 · GD -6 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.73 | 2.88 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM |
Missouri Rush Pre- Blue 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +24 |
Away far trip
Missouri Rush Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.67 | 2.74 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 TBD |
AFA Fillies PRE 12th · 0-0-5 · GD -64 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
9–0 | 3.00 | 2.77 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | SLSG Navy Academy I Pre | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.36 | -1.25 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs SLSG Green Academy I Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Iowa Pre · Sat Nov 14 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Missouri Rush Pre- Blue | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 8 | +24 | 15 | 2.50 | WLWWW | -0.87 | +0.16 | 100% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC United (Iowa) Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sporting Blue Valley Pre | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 57 | 14 | +43 | 24 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -0.36 | — | 100% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 4 | Kansas City Athletics Pre | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | +23 | 16 | 2.00 | WWLWW | -0.06 | -0.67 | 99% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC United (Iowa) Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 | 1.33 | WDL | +0.18 | -0.10 | 1% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Kansas City Athletics Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SLSG Green Academy I Pre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLLW | +0.84 | -1.02 | 0% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at SLSG Navy Academy I Pre · Sun Nov 8 at SLSG IL Academy I Pre · Sat Nov 14 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | SLSG IL Academy I Pre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLLL | +0.32 | -0.65 | 0% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre · Sun Oct 25 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sporting Iowa Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.10 | -0.10 | 0% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas City Athletics Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 4 | 0.80 | DWLLL | +1.21 | -1.13 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs AFA Fillies PRE · Sun Oct 25 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Toca Fusion Elite Pre | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 38 | -28 | 4 | 0.40 | LDLLL | +0.28 | — | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 11 | Kansas Rush Pre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 12 | AFA Fillies PRE | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 64 | -64 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.14 | +0.07 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sun Oct 25 at FC United (Iowa) Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Iowa Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.93 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.