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AFA Fillies PRE

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Heartland GU11 · 12 teams · AFA Fillies (all teams)

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12th
0-0-5 record · 5 played
0.00 points per game
-64 goal diff · 0–64
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.9
+1.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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AFA Fillies PRE
12th · 0.00 PPG
at
Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I
9th · 0.80 PPG

HyVee Multiplex, Purple 2A ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–7 (expected goals 1.4 for, 7.2 against · 0.05 expected points)

Season so farAFA Fillies PREGretna Elite Academy Pre- I
Position12th9th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-51-1-3
Points per game0.000.80
Goals for / game0.01.8
Goals against / game12.83.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless51
Form (recent first)L L L L LL L L W D
Biggest win—2–1 vs Toca Fusion Elite Pre
Worst loss0–18 at Kansas City Athletics Pre1–7 vs SLSG Navy Academy I Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-6.98-0.96
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.14+1.21

Common opponents: Sporting Blue Valley Pre — we 0–16; they 2–6. Toca Fusion Elite Pre — we 0–3; they 2–1. Kansas City Athletics Pre — we 0–18; they 4–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–16 at Sporting Blue Valley Pre, 0–3 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre, 0–18 at Kansas City Athletics Pre, 0–16 at SLSG IL Academy I Pre, 0–11 at Missouri Rush Pre- Blue.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I have lost 3 straight (form: DWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at HyVee Multiplex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Kansas Rush Pre sit 11th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Kansas Rush Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AFA Fillies PRE – Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Win
0.50 PPG		 10th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 2
Draw
0.17 PPG		 11th▲ up 1 11th▲ up 1 11th▲ up 1
Loss
0.00 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–7 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 87%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SLSG Navy Academy I Pre 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.77) 30 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Missouri Rush Pre- Blue 2.50 (+2.50) 3rd (2.37) 25 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sporting Blue Valley Pre 2.40 (+2.40) 2nd (2.40) 24 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Kansas City Athletics Pre 2.00 (+2.00) 4th (2.09) 20 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 FC United (Iowa) Pre 1.33 (+1.33) 7th (1.16) 14 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
6 SLSG Green Academy I Pre 1.20 (+1.20) 6th (1.29) 12 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
7 SLSG IL Academy I Pre 1.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.31) 10 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
8 Sporting Iowa Pre 1.00 (+1.00) 8th (1.15) 10 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
9 Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I 0.80 (+0.80) 9th (1.09) 8 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
10 Toca Fusion Elite Pre 0.40 (+0.40) 10th (0.40) A point next game
11 Kansas Rush Pre 0.00 (+0.00) 12th (0.00) Already ahead

How the results connect

23 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link AFA Fillies PRE to Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
23 favour them
-11.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 1–2 0–16 6–2 0–18 4–4 0–6 7–1 0–11 6–0 1–0 0–4 0–7 6–2 5–1 1–6 2–5 AFA Fillies PRE 12th Toca Fusion Elite P… 10th Sporting Blue Valle… 3rd Kansas City Athleti… 4th Missouri Rush Pre- … 2nd SLSG Navy Academy I… 1st SLSG Green Academy … 6th Gretna Elite Academ… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 19 Oct 20

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 2nd hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM		 Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -10		 Away
HyVee Multiplex		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–7 0.05 0.01 Upside
Sun Oct 25
10:30 AM		 FC United (Iowa) Pre
5th · 1-1-1 · GD -6		 Away
HyVee Multiplex		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–6 0.06 0.02 Upside
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 Sporting Iowa Pre
8th · 1-0-2 · GD -3		 Away
HyVee Multiplex		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–7 0.04 0.02 Upside
Sat Nov 21
TBD		 SLSG Green Academy I Pre
6th · 2-0-3 · GD -4		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.10 0.03 Upside
Sun Nov 22
TBD		 SLSG Navy Academy I Pre
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +23		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–9 0.00 0.03 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SLSG Navy Academy I Pre 5500 252+23 153.00 WWWWW +0.36 -1.25 100% 1.2
2 Missouri Rush Pre- Blue 6501 328+24 152.50 WLWWW -0.87 +0.16 100% 2.7
3 Sporting Blue Valley Pre 10802 5714+43 242.40 WWWWL -0.36 — 100% 2.3
4 Kansas City Athletics Pre 8512 3714+23 162.00 WWLWW -0.06 -0.67 98% 3.9
5 FC United (Iowa) Pre 3111 410-6 41.33 WDL +0.18 -0.10 1% 7.2
6 SLSG Green Academy I Pre 5203 711-4 61.20 WLLLW +0.84 -1.02 0% 6.6
7 SLSG IL Academy I Pre 6204 2119+2 61.00 LWLLL +0.32 -0.65 1% 6.3
8 Sporting Iowa Pre 3102 58-3 31.00 LLW -0.10 -0.10 1% 7.2
9 Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I 5113 919-10 40.80 DWLLL +1.21 -1.13 0% 7.6
10 Toca Fusion Elite Pre 10118 1038-28 40.40 LDLLL +0.28 — 0% 10.0
11 Kansas Rush Pre 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
12 AFA Fillies PRE 5005 064-64 00.00 LLLLL +1.14 +0.07 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.93 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.