Missouri Rush Pre- Blue

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Heartland GU11 · 12 teams · Missouri Rush (all teams)

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2nd

5-0-1 record · 6 played

2.50 points per game

+24 goal diff · 32–8

WLWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7

-0.87 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

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Missouri Rush Pre- Blue
2nd · 2.50 PPG

FC United (Iowa) Pre
5th · 1.33 PPG

HyVee Multiplex, Purple 1 ↗ far trip

83% 9%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.3 for, 1.5 against · 2.58 expected points)

Season so far	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue	FC United (Iowa) Pre
Position	2nd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-1	1-1-1
Points per game	2.50	1.33
Goals for / game	5.3	1.3
Goals against / game	1.3	3.3
Clean sheets	3	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W L W	L D W
Biggest win	11–0 vs AFA Fillies PRE	2–1 vs Sporting Iowa Pre
Worst loss	2–5 at Sporting Blue Valley Pre	0–7 at Sporting Blue Valley Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.38	-0.91
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.87	+0.18

Common opponents: Toca Fusion Elite Pre — we 5–1; they 2–2. Sporting Blue Valley Pre — we 2–5; they 0–7.

Game plan

They struggle to score
FC United (Iowa) Pre average 1.3 goals/game (league avg 2.9); blanked in 1 of 3.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 83% chance; likely score 4–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 03:30 PM at HyVee Multiplex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC United (Iowa) Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Missouri Rush Pre- Blue – FC United (Iowa) Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.57 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.57 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.29 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1
Loss 2.14 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

12% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.7 average finish

1st 12%
2nd 22%
3rd 50%
4th 15%
5th <1%
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.70 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre	3.00 (+0.50)	1st (2.77)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

14 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Missouri Rush Pre- Blue to FC United (Iowa) Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us

1 even

0 favour them

+5.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.16 · 1st hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:30 PM	FC United (Iowa) Pre 5th · 1-1-1 · GD -6	Away far trip HyVee Multiplex	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	4–1	2.58	2.51	Bank it
Sat Oct 24 06:30 PM	Sporting Iowa Pre 8th · 1-0-2 · GD -3	Away far trip HyVee Multiplex	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	3–1	2.42	2.50	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I 9th · 1-1-3 · GD -10	Away far trip HyVee Multiplex	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	4–1	2.60	2.51	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +23	Home Missouri Rush Sports Park	●●●●○ Tough	32%	2–2	1.15	2.37	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

SLSG Navy Academy I Pre

+23

3.00

WWWWW

+0.36

-1.25

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (9th)	7–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	5–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs SLSG Green Academy I Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Iowa Pre · Sat Nov 14 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sporting Iowa Pre (8th)	3–1	84%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (5th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–2	49%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	9–0	100%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Missouri Rush Pre- Blue

+24

2.50

WLWWW

-0.87

+0.16

100%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	11–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	6–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	2–5
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	6–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC United (Iowa) Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (5th)	4–1	83%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting Iowa Pre (8th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (9th)	4–1	84%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	2–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Blue Valley Pre

+43

2.40

WWWWL

-0.36

—

100%

2.3

Kansas City Athletics Pre

+23

2.00

WWLWW

-0.06

-0.67

98%

3.9

W	Tue Oct 20	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	6–1
W	Mon Oct 19	vs	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	18–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–6
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (9th)	4–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting Iowa Pre (8th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC United (Iowa) Pre (5th)	4–1	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC United (Iowa) Pre

-6

1.33

WDL

+0.18

-0.10

7.3

L	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	0–7
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sporting Iowa Pre (8th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Kansas City Athletics Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	1–4	6%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (7th)	2–3	28%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	6–1	96%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (9th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	1–2	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SLSG Green Academy I Pre

-4

1.20

WLLLW

+0.84

-1.02

6.6

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	4–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at SLSG Navy Academy I Pre · Sun Nov 8 at SLSG IL Academy I Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Iowa Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (7th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sporting Iowa Pre (8th)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (5th)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	5–1	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SLSG IL Academy I Pre

1.00

LWLLL

+0.32

-0.65

6.3

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	16–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre · Sun Oct 25 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (9th)	3–2	56%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting Iowa Pre (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (5th)	3–2	56%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Iowa Pre

-3

1.00

LLW

-0.10

7.2

W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas City Athletics Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	7–1	98%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (9th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	1–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I

-10

0.80

DWLLL

+1.21

-1.13

7.6

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	1–7
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	2–6
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	2–1
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	4–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs AFA Fillies PRE · Sun Oct 25 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (7th)	2–3	28%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	7–1	97%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting Iowa Pre (8th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (5th)	2–2	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Toca Fusion Elite Pre

-28

0.40

LDLLL

+0.28

—

10.0

Kansas Rush Pre

0.00

—

AFA Fillies PRE

-64

0.00

LLLLL

+1.14

+0.07

11.9

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–11
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (7th)	0–16
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	0–18
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	0–16

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sun Oct 25 at FC United (Iowa) Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Iowa Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (9th)	1–7	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (5th)	1–6	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sporting Iowa Pre (8th)	1–7	1%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	1–5	2%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–9	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.93 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.