Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Heartland GU11 · 12 teams · Gretna Elite Academy (all teams)

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7th

2-1-3 record · 6 played

1.17 points per game

+2 goal diff · 21–19

WLLLWlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.4

-0.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

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Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I
7th · 1.17 PPG

SLSG IL Academy I Pre
5th · 1.29 PPG

HyVee Multiplex, Purple 2A ↗

45% 16% 39%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.1 for, 3.0 against · 1.50 expected points)

Season so far	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I	SLSG IL Academy I Pre
Position	7th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-3	3-0-4
Points per game	1.17	1.29
Goals for / game	3.5	3.1
Goals against / game	3.2	2.7
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	W L L L W	W L L L W
Biggest win	12–0 vs AFA Fillies PRE	16–0 vs AFA Fillies PRE
Worst loss	1–7 vs SLSG Navy Academy I Pre	0–6 at SLSG Navy Academy I Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.14	+0.32
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.39	+0.16

Common opponents: Kansas City Athletics Pre — we 4–4; they 1–3. Toca Fusion Elite Pre — we 2–1; they 3–2. Sporting Blue Valley Pre — we 2–6; they 1–6. SLSG Navy Academy I Pre — we 1–7; they 0–6. AFA Fillies PRE — we 12–0; they 16–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs SLSG Green Academy I Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 45% / draw 16% / loss 39%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
What a win does
SLSG Green Academy I Pre sit 6th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.17.
A point moves us above SLSG Green Academy I Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SLSG IL Academy I Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I – SLSG IL Academy I Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.43 PPG	5th▲ up 2	5th▲ up 2	7th— holds
Win 1.43 PPG	5th▲ up 2	5th▲ up 2	7th— holds
Draw 1.14 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	9th▼ down 2
Loss 1.00 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

6.4 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th <1%
5th 28%
6th 28%
7th 26%
8th 12%
9th 6%
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.90 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre	3.00 (+1.83)	1st (2.78)	23 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue	2.50 (+1.33)	3rd (2.35)	18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Sporting Blue Valley Pre	2.40 (+1.23)	2nd (2.40)	17 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Kansas City Athletics Pre	2.11 (+0.94)	4th (2.14)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	SLSG IL Academy I Pre	1.29 (+0.12)	5th (1.43)	A point next game
6	SLSG Green Academy I Pre	1.20 (+0.03)	6th (1.33)	A point next game

How the results connect

33 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I to SLSG IL Academy I Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us

4 even

14 favour them

-0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.16 · 3rd hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:30 PM	SLSG IL Academy I Pre 5th · 3-0-4 · GD +3	Home HyVee Multiplex	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	3–2	1.50	1.21	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +24	Home HyVee Multiplex	●●●●● Very tough	16%	2–4	0.60	1.14	Upside
Sat Nov 7 TBD	FC United (Iowa) Pre 8th · 1-1-2 · GD -12	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	3–2	2.07	1.24	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 TBD	Sporting Iowa Pre 9th · 1-0-3 · GD -4	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.93	1.31	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

SLSG Navy Academy I Pre

+23

3.00

WWWWW

+0.66

-1.48

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (7th)	7–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (5th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	5–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs SLSG Green Academy I Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Iowa Pre · Sat Nov 14 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sporting Iowa Pre (9th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (8th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–2	51%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	9–0	100%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Missouri Rush Pre- Blue

+24

2.50

WLWWW

-0.89

+0.27

100%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	11–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	6–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	2–5
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	6–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC United (Iowa) Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (8th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting Iowa Pre (9th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (7th)	4–2	72%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	2–2	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Blue Valley Pre

+43

2.40

WWWWL

-0.30

—

100%

2.2

Kansas City Athletics Pre

+29

2.11

WLWWW

-0.17

-0.54

100%

3.7

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC United (Iowa) Pre (8th)	6–0
W	Tue Oct 20	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	6–1
W	Mon Oct 19	vs	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (5th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	18–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–6
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (7th)	4–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting Iowa Pre (9th)	3–1	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SLSG IL Academy I Pre

1.29

WLLLW

+0.16

-0.53

5.9

W	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting Iowa Pre (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	16–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sun Oct 25 at FC United (Iowa) Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs SLSG Green Academy I Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (7th)	2–3	39%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (8th)	3–1	66%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SLSG Green Academy I Pre

-4

1.20

WLLLW

+1.14

-1.24

6.5

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	4–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at SLSG Navy Academy I Pre · Sun Nov 8 at SLSG IL Academy I Pre · Sat Nov 14 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (5th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (8th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sporting Iowa Pre (9th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	5–0	96%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I

1.17

WLLLW

-0.39

+0.16

6.4

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	12–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	1–7
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	2–6
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	2–1
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	4–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 7 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (5th)	3–2	45%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–4	16%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (8th)	3–2	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting Iowa Pre (9th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC United (Iowa) Pre

-12

1.00

WDLL

+0.75

-0.31

8.1

L	Sat Oct 24	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	0–7
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sporting Iowa Pre (9th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs AFA Fillies PRE See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (5th)	1–3	19%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	6–1	95%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (7th)	2–3	21%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Iowa Pre

-4

0.75

LLWL

-0.11

-0.00

8.1

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas City Athletics Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs AFA Fillies PRE See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	AFA Fillies PRE (12th)	6–0	97%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (7th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Toca Fusion Elite Pre

-28

0.40

LDLLL

+0.31

—

10.0

Kansas Rush Pre

0.00

—

AFA Fillies PRE

-76

0.00

LLLLL

+0.98

+0.18

11.9

L	Sat Oct 24	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (7th)	0–12
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–11
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (5th)	0–16
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre (4th)	0–18
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (10th)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (3rd)	0–16

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC United (Iowa) Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Iowa Pre · Sat Nov 21 vs SLSG Green Academy I Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (8th)	1–6	2%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sporting Iowa Pre (9th)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (6th)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–9	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.