TableChase Clubs

Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU11 · 9 teams · Nationals (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+23 goal diff · 26–3
WWWWlast 4
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0
-1.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 23, 06:00 PM

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Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE
2nd · 3.00 PPG
at
Michigan Hawks Magic Pre
3rd · 2.50 PPG

Jaycee Park, Jaycee Turf ↗ · turf far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.8 for, 2.3 against · 2.07 expected points)

Season so farNationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUEMichigan Hawks Magic Pre
Position2nd3rd
Record (W-D-L)4-0-03-1-0
Points per game3.002.50
Goals for / game6.54.5
Goals against / game0.82.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W WW W W D
Biggest win8–0 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht4–0 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.95+1.07
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.10-1.54

Common opponents: Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY — we 7–2; they 6–3, 4–1. Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green — we 5–0; they 4–4.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Michigan Hawks Magic Pre score 4.5/game — well above the league's 3.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 64% / draw 14% / loss 22%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    Michigan Hawks Magic Pre have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 06:00 PM at Jaycee Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Michigan Hawks PRE sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Michigan Hawks PRE on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Michigan Hawks Magic Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE – Michigan Hawks Magic Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.40 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

23% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.0 average finish
  1. 1st 23%
  2. 2nd 55%
  3. 3rd 21%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Michigan Hawks PRE 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.81) Win next game

How the results connect

12 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE to Michigan Hawks Magic Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
0 favour them
+3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–2 3–6 1–4 5–0 4–4 2–2 8–0 0–6 4–2 0–4 6–1 6–3 7–1 5–3 Nationals SC Oaklan… 2nd Nationals SC Oaklan… 7th Royal Oak FC Pre GM… 5th Liverpool FC-IA Mic… 9th Nationals SC Macomb… 4th Michigan Rangers FC… 8th Michigan Hawks Magi… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 16 Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.98 · 2nd hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Fri Oct 23
06:00 PM		 Michigan Hawks Magic Pre
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +10		 Away far trip
Jaycee Park · turf		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 3–2 2.07 2.81 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
09:30 AM		 Michigan Hawks PRE
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +28		 Away far trip
Jaycee Park · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 2–3 0.99 2.51 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 Michigan Rangers FC Pre
8th · 0-0-3 · GD -12		 Away far trip
28th Ave 		●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–1 2.85 2.56 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Michigan Hawks PRE 4400 313+28 123.00 WWWW -0.54 -0.32 100% 1.2
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 4400 263+23 123.00 WWWW -1.10 +0.98 100% 2.0
3 Michigan Hawks Magic Pre 4310 188+10 102.50 DWWW -1.54 +2.95 100% 3.2
4 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE 7412 3120+11 131.86 WWLDL -0.12 -0.92 93% 3.6
5 Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green 7223 1926-7 81.14 LLLWW +0.20 -0.85 3% 5.3
6 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red 4112 511-6 41.00 WLDL -0.04 -0.92 4% 5.9
7 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY 7115 1537-22 40.57 LLLWL +1.17 -0.03 0% 7.3
8 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 3003 315-12 00.00 LLL +0.44 +0.39 0% 7.8
9 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht 4004 025-25 00.00 LLLL +0.53 -1.29 0% 8.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.18 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.