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Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU11 · 9 teams · Liverpool FC-IA Michigan (all teams)

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9th
0-0-4 record · 4 played
0.00 points per game
-25 goal diff · 0–25
LLLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.7
+0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:00 PM

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Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht
9th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red
6th · 1.00 PPG

Lone Pine Elementary School, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.9 against · 0.66 expected points)

Season so farLiverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre WhtLiverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red
Position9th6th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-41-1-2
Points per game0.001.00
Goals for / game0.01.3
Goals against / game6.32.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless41
Form (recent first)L L L LL D L W
Biggest win—2–0 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht
Worst loss0–9 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE0–7 vs Michigan Hawks PRE
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.37-0.92
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.43-0.05

Already played this season: Fri Oct 2 0–2 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red (L)

Common opponents: Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE — we 0–9; they 2–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 3.2); blanked in 1 of 4.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–8 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE, 0–9 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE, 0–2 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red, 0–6 vs Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 17%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Michigan Rangers FC Pre sit 8th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Michigan Rangers FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht – Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Win
0.60 PPG		 7th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 1
Draw
0.20 PPG		 8th▲ up 1 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 78%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Michigan Hawks PRE 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.83) 24 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Michigan Hawks Magic Pre 2.60 (+2.60) 2nd (2.60) 21 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 2.40 (+2.40) 3rd (2.23) 20 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE 1.86 (+1.86) 4th (1.92) 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green 1.14 (+1.14) 5th (1.42) 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
6 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red 1.00 (+1.00) 6th (1.14) 8 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
7 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY 0.57 (+0.57) 7th (0.73) A point next game
8 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 0.00 (+0.00) 8th (0.54) Already ahead

How the results connect

9 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht to Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
9 favour them
-5.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 0–9 2–2 0–8 7–2 2–1 6–1 0–6 2–2 6–3 1–5 7–0 0–8 3–5 Liverpool FC-IA Mic… 9th Nationals SC Macomb… 4th Nationals SC Oaklan… 3rd Royal Oak FC Pre GM… 5th Nationals SC Oaklan… 7th Michigan Hawks PRE 1st Liverpool FC-IA Mic… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 16 Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 23

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.28 · 8th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
05:00 PM		 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red
6th · 1-1-2 · GD -6		 Home
Lone Pine Elementary School		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.66 0.13 Upside
Fri Oct 30
05:30 PM		 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY
7th · 1-1-5 · GD -22		 Away
Premier Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–4 0.45 0.19 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM		 Michigan Rangers FC Pre
8th · 0-0-3 · GD -12		 Away far trip
28th Ave 		●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–3 0.62 0.25 Upside
Sun May 9
06:00 PM		 Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green
5th · 2-2-3 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Quickstad Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–4 0.25 0.25 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Michigan Hawks PRE 4400 313+28 123.00 WWWW -0.54 -0.42 100% 1.1
2 Michigan Hawks Magic Pre 5410 2110+11 132.60 DWWWW -0.59 — 100% 2.0
3 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 5401 286+22 122.40 WWWWL -0.59 +0.94 100% 3.0
4 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE 7412 3120+11 131.86 WWLDL -0.18 -0.92 94% 4.0
5 Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green 7223 1926-7 81.14 LLLWW +0.15 -0.84 3% 5.3
6 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red 4112 511-6 41.00 WLDL -0.05 -0.91 4% 5.9
7 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY 7115 1537-22 40.57 LLLWL +1.14 -0.04 0% 7.3
8 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 3003 315-12 00.00 LLL +0.48 +0.30 0% 7.7
9 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht 4004 025-25 00.00 LLLL +0.43 -1.28 0% 8.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.16 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.