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Michigan Hawks Magic Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU11 · 9 teams · Michigan Hawks (all teams)

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3rd
3-1-0 record · 4 played
2.50 points per game
+10 goal diff · 18–8
DWWWlast 4
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.2
-1.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 23, 06:00 PM

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Michigan Hawks Magic Pre
3rd · 2.50 PPG
vs
Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Jaycee Park, Jaycee Turf ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.3 for, 3.8 against · 0.79 expected points)

Season so farMichigan Hawks Magic PreNationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE
Position3rd2nd
Record (W-D-L)3-1-04-0-0
Points per game2.503.00
Goals for / game4.56.5
Goals against / game2.00.8
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W DW W W W
Biggest win4–0 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre8–0 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.07+2.95
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.54-1.10

Common opponents: Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green — we 4–4; they 5–0. Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY — we 6–3, 4–1; they 7–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE score 6.5/game — well above the league's 3.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE concede only 0.8/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 22%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Hawks Magic Pre – Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.60 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
2.20 PPG		 3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Loss
2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
3.2 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 21%
  3. 3rd 28%
  4. 4th 49%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Michigan Hawks PRE 3.00 (+0.50) 1st (2.81) 5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 3.00 (+0.50) 2nd (2.56) 5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 3 for their projection

How the results connect

12 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Michigan Hawks Magic Pre to Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
12 favour them
-3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–1 2–7 6–3 4–4 0–5 2–2 6–0 0–8 4–0 2–4 3–6 1–6 1–7 3–5 Michigan Hawks Magi… 3rd Nationals SC Oaklan… 7th Royal Oak FC Pre GM… 5th Michigan Rangers FC… 8th Liverpool FC-IA Mic… 9th Nationals SC Macomb… 4th Nationals SC Oaklan… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 16 Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +2.95 · 1st hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Fri Oct 23
06:00 PM		 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +23		 Home
Jaycee Park · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 2–3 0.79 2.16 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Michigan Hawks PRE 4400 313+28 123.00 WWWW -0.54 -0.32 100% 1.2
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 4400 263+23 123.00 WWWW -1.10 +0.98 100% 2.0
3 Michigan Hawks Magic Pre 4310 188+10 102.50 DWWW -1.54 +2.95 100% 3.2
4 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE 7412 3120+11 131.86 WWLDL -0.12 -0.92 93% 3.6
5 Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green 7223 1926-7 81.14 LLLWW +0.20 -0.85 3% 5.3
6 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red 4112 511-6 41.00 WLDL -0.04 -0.92 4% 5.9
7 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY 7115 1537-22 40.57 LLLWL +1.17 -0.03 0% 7.3
8 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 3003 315-12 00.00 LLL +0.44 +0.39 0% 7.8
9 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht 4004 025-25 00.00 LLLL +0.53 -1.29 0% 8.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.18 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.