Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red

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Lone Pine Elementary School, Field 1 ↗

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.4 against · 2.18 expected points)

Already played this season: Fri Oct 2 2–0 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht (W)

Common opponents: Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE — we 2–2; they 0–9.

• They struggle to score
  Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 3.2); blanked in 4 of 4.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht concede 6.2/game; worst result 0–9 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–7 vs Michigan Hawks PRE.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 67% / draw 16% / loss 17%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Confidence is low on their side
  Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 05:00 PM at Lone Pine Elementary School.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green sit 5th on 1.14 PPG; we are on 1.00.

  A point moves us above Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red – Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd <1%
4. 4th 3%
5. 5th 25%
6. 6th 56%
7. 7th 11%
8. 8th 4%
9. 9th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).