Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU11 · 9 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Fri Nov 6, 07:30 PM
Total Soccer Fraser, Field 1 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.9 for, 1.8 against · 2.36 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-2 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.86 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 4.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L D L W W | L D L W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht | 2–0 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht |
| Worst loss | 1–6 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 0–7 vs Michigan Hawks PRE |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.91 | -0.92 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.18 | -0.05 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 4 2–2 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red (D)
Common opponents: Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY — we 6–3; they 1–2. Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht — we 9–0; they 2–0. Michigan Hawks PRE — we 1–5; they 0–7.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 3.2); blanked in 1 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Friday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE – Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.75 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.63 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 5%
- 4th 89%
- 5th 7%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Hawks PRE | 3.00 (+1.14) | 1st (2.83) | 11 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Michigan Hawks Magic Pre | 2.60 (+0.74) | 2nd (2.60) | 8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 2.40 (+0.54) | 3rd (2.23) | 7 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
11 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE to Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
15 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.92 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Nov 6 07:30 PM |
Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -6 |
Home Total Soccer Fraser |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
3–1 | 2.36 | 1.92 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Michigan Hawks PRE | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 3 | +28 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.54 | -0.42 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sun Apr 11 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Michigan Hawks Magic Pre | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | -0.59 | — | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 3 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -0.59 | +0.94 | 100% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Hawks PRE · Sun Nov 1 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 20 | +11 | 13 | 1.86 | WWLDL | -0.18 | -0.92 | 93% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Nov 6 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 8 | 1.14 | LLLWW | +0.15 | -0.84 | 3% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red · Sun Apr 11 vs Michigan Hawks PRE · Sat Apr 24 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | 1.00 | WLDL | -0.05 | -0.91 | 4% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht · Fri Nov 6 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE · Sat Nov 7 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLWL | +1.14 | -0.04 | 0% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht · Sat Apr 24 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green · Sat May 1 vs Michigan Hawks PRE See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.48 | +0.30 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Hawks PRE · Sun Nov 1 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 25 | -25 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.43 | -1.28 | 0% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red · Fri Oct 30 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY · Sat Nov 7 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.16 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.