Michigan Hawks PRE
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU11 · 9 teams · Michigan Hawks (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM
Jaycee Park, Jaycee Turf ↗ · turf
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 7–1 (expected goals 7.8 for, 1.2 against · 2.96 expected points)
| Season so far | Michigan Hawks PRE | Michigan Rangers FC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-0 | 0-0-3 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 7.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 5.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W | L L L |
| Biggest win | 11–2 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY | — |
| Worst loss | — | 1–7 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +3.83 | -1.95 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.54 | +0.44 |
Common opponents: Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE — we 5–1; they 1–7. Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green — we 8–0; they 2–4.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Michigan Rangers FC Pre average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 3.2); blanked in 1 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Michigan Rangers FC Pre concede 5.0/game; worst result 1–7 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 98% chance; likely score 7–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Michigan Rangers FC Pre have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Michigan Rangers FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Hawks PRE – Michigan Rangers FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.60 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.40 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 7–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 77%
- 2nd 22%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
10 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Michigan Hawks PRE to Michigan Rangers FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.32 · 5th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:30 PM |
Michigan Rangers FC Pre 8th · 0-0-3 · GD -12 |
Home Jaycee Park · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
7–1 | 2.96 | 2.99 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 24 09:30 AM |
Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +23 |
Home Jaycee Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
3–2 | 1.85 | 2.80 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 10:30 AM |
Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green 5th · 2-2-3 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Quickstad Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
5–1 | 2.75 | 2.79 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 11:00 AM |
Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY 7th · 1-1-5 · GD -22 |
Away far trip
Evolution Sportsplex Dome |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
7–1 | 2.90 | 2.81 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Michigan Hawks PRE | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 3 | +28 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.54 | -0.32 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sun Apr 11 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | +23 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -1.10 | +0.98 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 at Michigan Hawks Magic Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Hawks PRE · Sun Nov 1 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Michigan Hawks Magic Pre | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 10 | 2.50 | DWWW | -1.54 | +2.95 | 100% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 20 | +11 | 13 | 1.86 | WWLDL | -0.12 | -0.92 | 94% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Nov 6 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 8 | 1.14 | LLLWW | +0.20 | -0.85 | 3% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red · Sun Apr 11 vs Michigan Hawks PRE · Sat Apr 24 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | 1.00 | WLDL | -0.04 | -0.92 | 4% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht · Fri Nov 6 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE · Sat Nov 7 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLWL | +1.17 | -0.03 | 0% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht · Sat Apr 24 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green · Sat May 1 vs Michigan Hawks PRE See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.44 | +0.39 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Hawks PRE · Sun Nov 1 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Nov 7 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Wht | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 25 | -25 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.53 | -1.29 | 0% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre Red · Fri Oct 30 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY · Sat Nov 7 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.18 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.