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Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Southern Cal BU11 · 9 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)

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8th
1-0-3 record · 4 played
0.75 points per game
-17 goal diff · 10–27
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.9
+1.68 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:30 AM

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Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II
8th · 0.75 PPG
at
SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II
2nd · 2.25 PPG

Alliant International University, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–8 (expected goals 1.8 for, 8.2 against · 0.07 expected points)

Season so farSporting California USA Pre- NAVY IISDSC Surf Pre- Silver II
Position8th2nd
Record (W-D-L)1-0-33-0-1
Points per game0.752.25
Goals for / game2.57.3
Goals against / game6.80.8
Clean sheets03
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L LW L W W
Biggest win—10–0 vs LA Breakers Pre- Red II
Worst loss0–10 vs SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II2–3 at Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.38+2.80
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.68-2.08

Already played this season: Sun Oct 18 0–10 vs SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II (L)

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II score 7.2/game — well above the league's 3.7.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–10 vs SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 2%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:30 AM at Alliant International University.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Rebels SC Pre- Blue II sit 7th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.

    A point moves us above Rebels SC Pre- Blue II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II – SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.60 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Win
1.20 PPG		 6th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 2
Draw
0.80 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Loss
0.60 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–8 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
7.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 86%
  9. 9th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 West Coast FC Pre- White II 3.00 (+2.25) 1st (2.39) 60 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
2 SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II 2.25 (+1.50) 2nd (2.33) 45 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
3 CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II 2.25 (+1.50) 3rd (1.94) 45 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
4 Legends FC PRE Black II 1.75 (+1.00) 5th (1.56) 34 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
5 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II 1.50 (+0.75) 4th (1.61) 29 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
6 Pateadores Pre- Gold II 1.00 (+0.25) 6th (1.49) A point next game
7 Rebels SC Pre- Blue II 1.00 (+0.25) 7th (1.16) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 2 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II to SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-10.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–10 Sporting California… 8th SDSC Surf Pre- Silv… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

1st 5th 9th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.13 · 4th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
11:00 AM
no score posted		 LAFC Pre White II
 Home
San Bernardino Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 3–5 0.77 0.75 Upside
Sun Oct 25
10:30 AM		 SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +26		 Away far trip
Alliant International University		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–8 0.07 0.64 Upside
Sun Nov 1
TBD		 Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II
9th · 0-0-5 · GD -37		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 5–2 2.50 0.90 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
TBD		 Rebels SC Pre- Blue II
7th · 1-1-2 · GD -3		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
27%		 3–4 0.94 0.91 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II
5th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%		 2–4 0.65 0.88 Upside
Sun Nov 22
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC Pre White II
 Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 3–5 0.77 0.87 Upside
Sun Dec 13
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +9		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 2–7 0.22 0.81 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Pateadores Pre- Gold II
6th · 1-2-2 · GD +4		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
16%		 2–5 0.60 0.79 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +9		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 2–6 0.39 0.76 Upside
Sun Apr 4
01:30 PM		 Legends FC PRE Black II
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 2–6 0.32 0.73 Upside
Sun Apr 11
09:00 AM		 Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II
9th · 0-0-5 · GD -37		 Away far trip
*Pleasant Valley Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 5–3 2.20 0.83 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II
5th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 2–5 0.40 0.80 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Pateadores Pre- Gold II
6th · 1-2-2 · GD +4		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 2–5 0.36 0.78 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Rebels SC Pre- White II
 Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 3–5 0.77 0.78 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 Pateadores Pre- Gold II
6th · 1-2-2 · GD +4		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 2–5 0.36 0.75 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 Legends FC PRE Black II
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 2–5 0.55 0.74 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD		 West Coast FC Pre- White II
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 2–8 0.10 0.71 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 West Coast FC Pre- White II 4400 257+18 123.00 WWWW -0.28 -0.14 100% 1.6
2 SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II 4301 293+26 92.25 WWLW -2.08 +0.17 100% 1.8
3 CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II 4301 2011+9 92.25 LWWW -0.70 +0.08 87% 3.3
4 Legends FC PRE Black II 4211 168+8 71.75 WWD -2.59 +0.54 34% 5.1
5 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II 4202 1010+0 61.50 WLW +1.56 -0.23 47% 4.7
6 Pateadores Pre- Gold II 5122 1814+4 51.00 LDLWD -0.29 -0.03 28% 5.2
7 Rebels SC Pre- Blue II 4112 1316-3 41.00 WDLL +0.57 +0.05 4% 6.6
8 Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II 4103 1027-17 30.75 LLL +1.68 +0.13 0% 7.9
9 Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II 5005 340-37 00.00 LLLLL +1.17 +0.32 0% 9.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.