TableChase Clubs

Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Southern Cal BU11 · 9 teams · Beach Futbol Club (all teams)

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5th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+0 goal diff · 10–10
WLWlast 3
46% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.7
+1.56 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 08:30 AM

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Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II
5th · 1.50 PPG
at
Pateadores Pre- Gold II
6th · 1.00 PPG

Grant Howald, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.7 for, 3.1 against · 1.19 expected points)

Season so farBeach Futbol Club Pre- Black IIPateadores Pre- Gold II
Position5th6th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-21-2-2
Points per game1.501.00
Goals for / game2.53.6
Goals against / game2.52.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W L WD W L D L
Biggest win5–2 vs Pateadores Pre- Gold II10–0 vs Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II
Worst loss1–3 at CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II2–5 at Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.37+0.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.56-0.29

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 5–2 vs Pateadores Pre- Gold II (W)

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 34%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 08:30 AM at Grant Howald.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Legends FC PRE Black II sit 4th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Legends FC PRE Black II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pateadores Pre- Gold II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II – Pateadores Pre- Gold II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.20 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1
Win
1.80 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
1.20 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we fall to at least 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
46% top 4
54% below the top 4
4.7 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 31%
  5. 5th 28%
  6. 6th 20%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.70 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 West Coast FC Pre- White II 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.39) 54 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
2 SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II 2.25 (+0.75) 2nd (2.33) 39 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
3 CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II 2.25 (+0.75) 3rd (1.94) 39 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4 Legends FC PRE Black II 1.75 (+0.25) 5th (1.56) A point next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II to Pateadores Pre- Gold II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
4 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–2 1–3 5–4 2–2 11–0 0–10 3–2 7–0 1–6 4–1 Beach Futbol Club P… 5th CDA Slammers FC Pre… 3rd SDSC Surf Pre- Silv… 2nd Rebels SC Pre- Blue… 7th Eagles SC Eagles SC… 9th West Coast FC Pre- … 1st Pateadores Pre- Gol… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

1st 5th 9th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.23 · 9th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
01:30 PM
no score posted		 West Coast FC Pre- White II
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18		 Away far trip
Robert A Curtis Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 2–4 0.57 1.31 Upside
Sun Nov 1
08:30 AM		 Pateadores Pre- Gold II
6th · 1-2-2 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Grant Howald		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–3 1.19 1.29 Upside
Sun Nov 8
03:30 PM		 SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +26		 Away far trip
Willow Grove Elementary School		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–4 0.46 1.17 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -17		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 4–2 2.23 1.31 Bank it
Sun Dec 13
01:30 PM		 Legends FC PRE Black II
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 2–3 1.12 1.29 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II
 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 3–2 1.78 1.33 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Pateadores Pre- Blue II
 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 3–2 1.78 1.37 Swing game
Sun Mar 28
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +9		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%		 3–3 1.28 1.37 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II
9th · 0-0-5 · GD -37		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 6–1 2.85 1.48 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 West Coast FC Pre- White II
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
24%		 2–3 0.86 1.44 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -17		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 5–2 2.51 1.51 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM		 Rebels SC Pre- Blue II
7th · 1-1-2 · GD -3		 Away far trip
Southwestern College		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 3–2 1.59 1.51 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 Rebels SC Pre- Blue II
7th · 1-1-2 · GD -3		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 3–2 1.95 1.54 Swing game
Sat May 8
09:00 AM		 Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II
9th · 0-0-5 · GD -37		 Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 5–1 2.73 1.60 Bank it
Sun May 9
TBD		 LAFC Pre White II
 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 3–2 1.78 1.61 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD		 Legends FC PRE Black II
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.48 1.61 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 West Coast FC Pre- White II 4400 257+18 123.00 WWWW -0.28 -0.14 100% 1.5
2 SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II 4301 293+26 92.25 WWLW -2.08 +0.17 99% 1.8
3 CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II 4301 2011+9 92.25 LWWW -0.70 +0.08 87% 3.3
4 Legends FC PRE Black II 4211 168+8 71.75 WWD -2.59 +0.54 37% 5.0
5 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II 4202 1010+0 61.50 WLW +1.56 -0.23 46% 4.7
6 Pateadores Pre- Gold II 5122 1814+4 51.00 LDLWD -0.29 -0.03 29% 5.2
7 Rebels SC Pre- Blue II 4112 1316-3 41.00 WDLL +0.57 +0.05 3% 6.7
8 Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II 4103 1027-17 30.75 LLL +1.68 +0.13 0% 7.9
9 Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II 5005 340-37 00.00 LLLLL +1.17 +0.32 0% 9.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.