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CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Southern Cal BU11 · 9 teams · CDA Slammers FC (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+9 goal diff · 20–11
LWWWlast 4
88% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3
-0.70 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 08:00 AM

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CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II
3rd · 2.25 PPG
vs

Santiago Charter Middle School, Field 3ss ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–3 (expected goals 4.0 for, 3.0 against · 1.83 expected points)

Season so farCDA Slammers FC Pre Black IILegends FC PRE Black II
Position3rd4th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-12-1-1
Points per game2.251.75
Goals for / game5.04.0
Goals against / game2.82.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W LD W W
Biggest win11–0 at Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II7–0 vs Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II
Worst loss1–6 at West Coast FC Pre- White II—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.28+0.68
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.70-2.59

Common opponents: Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II — we 11–0; they 5–3, 7–0.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 56% / draw 15% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II sit 2nd on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A point moves us above SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC PRE Black II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II – Legends FC PRE Black II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.40 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
1.80 PPG
4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–3 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
88% top 4
12% below the top 4
3.3 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 15%
  3. 3rd 49%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.84 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 West Coast FC Pre- White II 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.39) 48 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
2 SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II 2.25 (+0.00) 2nd (2.33) A point next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II to Legends FC PRE Black II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
11–0 0–7 3–5 0–10 3–3 5–4 2–2 1–6 4–1 3–1 5–2 CDA Slammers FC Pre… 3rd Eagles SC Eagles SC… 9th Rebels SC Pre- Blue… 7th West Coast FC Pre- … 1st Beach Futbol Club P… 5th Pateadores Pre- Gol… 6th Legends FC PRE Blac… 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

1st 5th 9th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 5th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
09:00 AM
no score posted
SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +26
Home
Santiago Charter Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–4 0.93 1.99 Upside
Sun Nov 1
08:00 AM
Legends FC PRE Black II
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Home
Santiago Charter Middle School
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
3–3 1.83 1.96 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
West Coast FC Pre- White II
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Home
Santiago Charter Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
33%
3–4 1.13 1.84 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
Empire Surf Pre- II
Home
Santiago Charter Middle School
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
4–3 2.13 1.88 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
12:00 PM
LAFC Pre White II
Home
Santiago Charter Middle School
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
4–3 2.13 1.91 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
TBD
Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -17
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
7–2 2.73 1.99 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -17
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
6–2 2.52 2.04 Bank it
Sun Mar 28
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II
5th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
3–3 1.56 2.00 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD
Rebels SC Pre- Blue II
7th · 1-1-2 · GD -3
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
4–2 2.29 2.02 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Rebels SC Pre- White II
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
4–3 2.13 2.03 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II
9th · 0-0-5 · GD -37
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
8–1 2.94 2.09 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 PM
Legends FC PRE Black II
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Away
Silverlakes Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
3–3 1.44 2.05 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD
Pateadores Pre- Gold II
6th · 1-2-2 · GD +4
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
4–2 1.90 2.04 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD
Pateadores Pre- Gold II
6th · 1-2-2 · GD +4
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
3–3 1.52 2.01 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD
SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +26
Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%
2–4 0.62 1.94 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 West Coast FC Pre- White II 4400 257+18 123.00 WWWW -0.28 -0.14 100% 1.6
2 SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II 4301 293+26 92.25 WWLW -2.08 +0.17 99% 1.8
3 CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II 4301 2011+9 92.25 LWWW -0.70 +0.08 88% 3.3
4 Legends FC PRE Black II 4211 168+8 71.75 WWD -2.59 +0.54 32% 5.1
5 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II 4202 1010+0 61.50 WLW +1.56 -0.23 48% 4.7
6 Pateadores Pre- Gold II 5122 1814+4 51.00 LDLWD -0.29 -0.03 29% 5.2
7 Rebels SC Pre- Blue II 4112 1316-3 41.00 WDLL +0.57 +0.05 4% 6.6
8 Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II 4103 1027-17 30.75 LLL +1.68 +0.13 0% 7.9
9 Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II 5005 340-37 00.00 LLLLL +1.17 +0.32 0% 9.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.