TableChase Clubs

SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Southern Cal BU11 · 9 teams · SDSC Surf (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 39 minutes ago. Next available update in 20:37.
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2nd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+26 goal diff · 29–3
WWLWlast 4
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8
-2.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:30 AM

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SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II
2nd · 2.25 PPG
vs
Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II
8th · 0.75 PPG

Alliant International University, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 8–1 (expected goals 8.2 for, 1.8 against · 2.91 expected points)

Season so farSDSC Surf Pre- Silver IISporting California USA Pre- NAVY II
Position2nd8th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-11-0-3
Points per game2.250.75
Goals for / game7.32.5
Goals against / game0.86.8
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W L W WL L L
Biggest win10–0 vs LA Breakers Pre- Red II—
Worst loss2–3 at Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II0–10 vs SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.80-2.38
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-2.08+1.68

Already played this season: Sun Oct 18 10–0 at Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II (W)

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II concede 6.8/game; worst result 0–10 vs SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 96% chance; likely score 8–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II – Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.40 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
1.80 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 8–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

40% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.8 average finish
  1. 1st 40%
  2. 2nd 46%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.84 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 West Coast FC Pre- White II 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.39) 48 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection

How the results connect

1 chain · 2 teams

Paths of results that link SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II to Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+10.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
10–0 SDSC Surf Pre- Silv… 2nd Sporting California… 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

1st 5th 9th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.17 · 3rd hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
09:00 AM
no score posted		 CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +9		 Away far trip
Santiago Charter Middle School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 4–2 1.93 2.19 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
10:30 AM		 Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -17		 Home
Alliant International University		 ●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 8–1 2.91 2.31 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
03:30 PM		 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II
5th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
Willow Grove Elementary School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 4–1 2.44 2.33 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM		 Rebels SC Pre- Blue II
7th · 1-1-2 · GD -3		 Away far trip
Southwestern College		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 4–2 2.48 2.34 Bank it
Sun Dec 13
09:00 AM		 Pateadores Pre- Blue II
 Home
Willow Grove Elementary School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 5–2 2.60 2.37 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 West Coast FC Pre- White II
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 3–3 1.45 2.28 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Pateadores Pre- Gold II
6th · 1-2-2 · GD +4		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 4–2 2.15 2.27 Swing game
Sun Mar 28
12:00 PM		 Legends FC PRE Black II
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–2 2.08 2.25 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Pateadores Pre- Gold II
6th · 1-2-2 · GD +4		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 4–2 2.44 2.27 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Legends FC PRE Black II
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 4–2 2.38 2.28 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 West Coast FC Pre- White II
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 3–2 1.83 2.25 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 Empire Surf Pre- II
 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 5–2 2.60 2.27 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 Rebels SC Pre- Blue II
7th · 1-1-2 · GD -3		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 5–1 2.69 2.29 Bank it
Sun May 9
TBD		 Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II
9th · 0-0-5 · GD -37		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 9–1 2.98 2.33 Bank it
Sun May 16
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +9		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 4–2 2.27 2.33 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 West Coast FC Pre- White II 4400 257+18 123.00 WWWW -0.28 -0.14 100% 1.5
2 SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II 4301 293+26 92.25 WWLW -2.08 +0.17 100% 1.8
3 CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II 4301 2011+9 92.25 LWWW -0.70 +0.08 87% 3.2
4 Legends FC PRE Black II 4211 168+8 71.75 WWD -2.59 +0.54 34% 5.1
5 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II 4202 1010+0 61.50 WLW +1.56 -0.23 49% 4.7
6 Pateadores Pre- Gold II 5122 1814+4 51.00 LDLWD -0.29 -0.03 28% 5.2
7 Rebels SC Pre- Blue II 4112 1316-3 41.00 WDLL +0.57 +0.05 3% 6.6
8 Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II 4103 1027-17 30.75 LLL +1.68 +0.13 0% 7.9
9 Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II 5005 340-37 00.00 LLLLL +1.17 +0.32 0% 9.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.