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STA MOSC Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northeast - North BU11 · 10 teams · STA Mount Olive Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 19 hours ago.
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2nd
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+44 goal diff · 47–3
WWWWLlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1
-1.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:45 AM

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STA MOSC Pre
2nd · 2.40 PPG
at
WNY Flash Binghamton Pre
10th · 0.00 PPG

Hillside Park, Turf Field 1 ↗ · turf far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 9–1 (expected goals 9.4 for, 1.0 against · 2.98 expected points)

Season so farSTA MOSC PreWNY Flash Binghamton Pre
Position2nd10th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-10-0-6
Points per game2.400.00
Goals for / game9.41.0
Goals against / game0.65.7
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)L W W W WL L L L L
Biggest win16–0 at Quickstrike FC Pre—
Worst loss0–1 at Western United Pioneers FC Pre1–14 at STA MOSC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+5.10-2.59
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.29+1.41

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 14–1 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (W)

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    WNY Flash Binghamton Pre average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 3.0); blanked in 2 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    WNY Flash Binghamton Pre concede 5.7/game; worst result 1–14 at STA MOSC Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Western United Pioneers FC Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 99% chance; likely score 9–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    WNY Flash Binghamton Pre have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:45 AM at Hillside Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:45 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the WNY Flash Binghamton Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (STA MOSC Pre – WNY Flash Binghamton Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.17 PPG		 5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3
Loss
2.00 PPG		 5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 9–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

94% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.1 average finish
  1. 1st 94%
  2. 2nd 6%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Brentwood SC Pre 3.00 (+0.60) 2nd (2.27) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection

How the results connect

16 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link STA MOSC Pre to WNY Flash Binghamton Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
0 favour them
+12.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
14–1 0–1 4–1 3–2 4–0 10–0 2–7 4–1 4–0 7–1 2–3 5–2 2–1 16–0 0–4 1–7 STA MOSC Pre 2nd Western United Pion… 5th Fox Soccer Academy … 7th Quickstrike FC Pre 9th PSA North Pre 6th Long Island Slammer… 3rd Brentwood SC Pre 1st WNY Flash Binghamto… 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.26 · 7th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
12:00 PM
no score posted		 FC Dutchmen Surf Pre
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +1		 Away far trip
DiCaprio Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 6–1 2.83 2.47 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
09:45 AM		 WNY Flash Binghamton Pre
10th · 0-0-6 · GD -28		 Away far trip
Hillside Park · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 9–1 2.98 2.54 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM		 FC Dutchmen Surf Pre
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +1		 Home
Turkey Brook Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 7–1 2.91 2.59 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
TBD		 Quickstrike FC Pre
9th · 0-1-5 · GD -31		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
100%		 9–0 3.00 2.64 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre
7th · 1-0-3 · GD -15		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 9–1 2.98 2.67 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Eastern FC Pre
8th · 0-1-2 · GD -5		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 7–1 2.95 2.70 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 PSA North Pre
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +4		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 5–1 2.73 2.70 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Brentwood SC Pre
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +19		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 4–1 2.56 2.69 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Long Island Slammers Pre
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +11		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 5–1 2.66 2.69 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD		 Brentwood SC Pre
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +19		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 4–2 2.30 2.66 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD		 PSA North Pre
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +4		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–1 2.85 2.67 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD		 Long Island Slammers Pre
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +11		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 6–1 2.81 2.68 Bank it
Sun May 23
TBD		 Eastern FC Pre
8th · 0-1-2 · GD -5		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 6–1 2.91 2.69 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Brentwood SC Pre 5500 256+19 153.00 WWWWW -2.05 +0.55 99% 2.3
2 STA MOSC Pre 5401 473+44 122.40 WWWWL -1.29 -0.26 100% 1.1
3 Long Island Slammers Pre 5401 2110+11 122.40 WWWLW -1.94 +0.66 64% 4.1
4 FC Dutchmen Surf Pre 4301 1413+1 92.25 WWWL +0.56 -0.13 47% 4.5
5 Western United Pioneers FC Pre 4301 99+0 92.25 LWWW +2.41 -0.72 84% 3.4
6 PSA North Pre 6303 1511+4 91.50 LWLWW -1.67 +0.79 6% 5.9
7 Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre 4103 621-15 30.75 LWLL +2.02 -0.29 0% 7.6
8 Eastern FC Pre 3012 49-5 10.33 LDL -0.82 +0.31 0% 7.4
9 Quickstrike FC Pre 6015 435-31 10.17 LDLLL +1.50 -0.19 0% 9.6
10 WNY Flash Binghamton Pre 6006 634-28 00.00 LLLLL +1.41 -0.28 0% 9.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.