FC Dutchmen Surf Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northeast - North BU11 · 10 teams · FC Dutchmen Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:30 AM
Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N, field 3 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.2 for, 2.5 against · 1.75 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Dutchmen Surf Pre | Eastern FC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-1 | 0-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / game | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W | L D L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs Eastern FC Pre | — |
| Worst loss | 1–6 vs Brentwood SC Pre | 1–4 at FC Dutchmen Surf Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.09 | -0.89 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.56 | -0.82 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 4–1 vs Eastern FC Pre (W)
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Eastern FC Pre average 1.3 goals/game (league avg 3.0); blanked in 0 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 53% / draw 16% / loss 31%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 10:30 AM at Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Long Island Slammers Pre sit 3rd on 2.40 PPG; we are on 2.25.A win moves us above Long Island Slammers Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Eastern FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dutchmen Surf Pre – Eastern FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.40 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.40 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.80 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 15%
- 4th 31%
- 5th 40%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brentwood SC Pre | 3.00 (+0.75) | 2nd (2.27) | 45 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 2 | STA MOSC Pre | 2.40 (+0.15) | 1st (2.69) | Win next game |
| 3 | Long Island Slammers Pre | 2.40 (+0.15) | 4th (1.79) | Win next game |
How the results connect
6 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link FC Dutchmen Surf Pre to Eastern FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.13 · 5th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 27 12:00 PM no score posted |
STA MOSC Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +44 |
Home DiCaprio Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–6 | 0.13 | 1.83 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM |
Eastern FC Pre 8th · 0-1-2 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
3–2 | 1.75 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
PSA North Pre 6th · 3-0-3 · GD +4 |
Home DiCaprio Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.54 | 1.77 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
STA MOSC Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +44 |
Away far trip
Turkey Brook Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–7 | 0.06 | 1.56 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 03:40 PM |
Long Island Slammers Pre 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Moriches Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
2–4 | 0.88 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
Brentwood SC Pre 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +19 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
2–4 | 0.49 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton Pre 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -28 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
4–2 | 2.44 | 1.48 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre 7th · 1-0-3 · GD -15 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
4–2 | 2.10 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Quickstrike FC Pre 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -31 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
4–1 | 2.61 | 1.62 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Western United Pioneers FC Pre 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–3 | 1.02 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 11:00 AM |
Western United Pioneers FC Pre 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +0 |
Home DiCaprio Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
2–2 | 1.36 | 1.56 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
Quickstrike FC Pre 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -31 |
Home DiCaprio Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
5–1 | 2.77 | 1.63 | Bank it |
| Sun May 16 11:00 AM |
Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre 7th · 1-0-3 · GD -15 |
Home DiCaprio Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
4–2 | 2.40 | 1.68 | Bank it |
| Sun May 23 12:00 PM |
WNY Flash Binghamton Pre 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -28 |
Home DiCaprio Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
5–1 | 2.66 | 1.73 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brentwood SC Pre | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -2.05 | +0.55 | 98% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Western United Pioneers FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 at WNY Flash Binghamton Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | STA MOSC Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 47 | 3 | +44 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -1.29 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at FC Dutchmen Surf Pre · Sun Oct 25 at WNY Flash Binghamton Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dutchmen Surf Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Long Island Slammers Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -1.94 | +0.66 | 65% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Quickstrike FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Western United Pioneers FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Dutchmen Surf Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Dutchmen Surf Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | +0.56 | -0.13 | 49% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs STA MOSC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Eastern FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs PSA North Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Western United Pioneers FC Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | +2.41 | -0.72 | 83% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PSA North Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Brentwood SC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Long Island Slammers Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | PSA North Pre | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLWW | -1.67 | +0.79 | 5% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Western United Pioneers FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dutchmen Surf Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | +2.02 | -0.29 | 0% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Eastern FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Brentwood SC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Eastern FC Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Eastern FC Pre | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 | 0.33 | LDL | -0.82 | +0.31 | 0% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dutchmen Surf Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Quickstrike FC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Quickstrike FC Pre | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 35 | -31 | 1 | 0.17 | LDLLL | +1.50 | -0.19 | 0% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Long Island Slammers Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Eastern FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at STA MOSC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | WNY Flash Binghamton Pre | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.41 | -0.28 | 0% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs STA MOSC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Brentwood SC Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Eastern FC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.