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Long Island Slammers Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northeast - North BU11 · 10 teams · Long Island Slammers (all teams)

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3rd
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+11 goal diff · 21–10
WWWLWlast 5
63% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2
-1.94 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:30 PM

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Long Island Slammers Pre
3rd · 2.40 PPG
vs
Quickstrike FC Pre
9th · 0.17 PPG

Moriches Soccer Park, field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.8 for, 1.3 against · 2.85 expected points)

Season so farLong Island Slammers PreQuickstrike FC Pre
Position3rd9th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-10-1-5
Points per game2.400.17
Goals for / game4.20.7
Goals against / game2.05.8
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W L W W WL L L D L
Biggest win7–2 vs Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre—
Worst loss4–6 at FC Dutchmen Surf Pre0–16 vs STA MOSC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.84-3.11
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.94+1.50

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 2–1 at Quickstrike FC Pre (W)

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Quickstrike FC Pre average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 3.0); blanked in 3 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Quickstrike FC Pre concede 5.8/game; worst result 0–16 vs STA MOSC Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 94% chance; likely score 5–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Quickstrike FC Pre have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    STA MOSC Pre sit 2nd on 2.40 PPG; we are on 2.40.

    A point moves us above STA MOSC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Quickstrike FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Long Island Slammers Pre – Quickstrike FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.17 PPG		 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2
Loss
2.00 PPG		 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
63% top 4
37% below the top 4
4.2 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 6%
  3. 3rd 21%
  4. 4th 36%
  5. 5th 28%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Brentwood SC Pre 3.00 (+0.60) 2nd (2.27) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
2 STA MOSC Pre 2.40 (+0.00) 1st (2.69) A point next game

How the results connect

19 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Long Island Slammers Pre to Quickstrike FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

17 favour us
2 favour them
+5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 4–6 4–1 2–2 1–6 7–1 3–2 4–0 4–0 4–1 0–4 2–5 4–0 1–14 16–0 2–3 Long Island Slammer… 3rd FC Dutchmen Surf Pre 4th WNY Flash Binghamto… 10th Eastern FC Pre 8th Brentwood SC Pre 1st PSA North Pre 6th STA MOSC Pre 2nd Quickstrike FC Pre 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.66 · 2nd hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:30 PM		 Quickstrike FC Pre
9th · 0-1-5 · GD -31		 Home
Moriches Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–1 2.85 2.48 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
02:45 PM		 Western United Pioneers FC Pre
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Lusitano Stadium · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.35 2.32 Upside
Sat Nov 14
03:40 PM		 FC Dutchmen Surf Pre
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +1		 Home
Moriches Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 4–2 1.98 2.27 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
10:50 AM		 Western United Pioneers FC Pre
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +0		 Home
Moriches Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 2–2 1.69 2.21 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM		 Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre
7th · 1-0-3 · GD -15		 Away far trip
Hudson Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
75%		 4–2 2.37 2.22 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Eastern FC Pre
8th · 0-1-2 · GD -5		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 3–1 2.33 2.23 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Brentwood SC Pre
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +19		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 2–3 0.78 2.11 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 PSA North Pre
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +4		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.52 2.07 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 STA MOSC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +44		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–5 0.27 1.94 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 PSA North Pre
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +4		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–2 1.85 1.93 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD		 Brentwood SC Pre
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +19		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 2–3 1.10 1.88 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD		 Eastern FC Pre
8th · 0-1-2 · GD -5		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 3–2 2.05 1.89 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD		 STA MOSC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +44		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–6 0.15 1.79 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Brentwood SC Pre 5500 256+19 153.00 WWWWW -2.05 +0.55 99% 2.3
2 STA MOSC Pre 5401 473+44 122.40 WWWWL -1.29 -0.26 100% 1.1
3 Long Island Slammers Pre 5401 2110+11 122.40 WWWLW -1.94 +0.66 63% 4.2
4 FC Dutchmen Surf Pre 4301 1413+1 92.25 WWWL +0.56 -0.13 49% 4.4
5 Western United Pioneers FC Pre 4301 99+0 92.25 LWWW +2.41 -0.72 83% 3.4
6 PSA North Pre 6303 1511+4 91.50 LWLWW -1.67 +0.79 7% 5.9
7 Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre 4103 621-15 30.75 LWLL +2.02 -0.29 0% 7.6
8 Eastern FC Pre 3012 49-5 10.33 LDL -0.82 +0.31 0% 7.4
9 Quickstrike FC Pre 6015 435-31 10.17 LDLLL +1.50 -0.19 0% 9.6
10 WNY Flash Binghamton Pre 6006 634-28 00.00 LLLLL +1.41 -0.28 0% 9.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.