TAG Soccer Pre Guerra
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU12 · 9 teams · TAG Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
Fairview Soccer Park , Field 1A ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.7 against · 2.28 expected points)
| Season so far | TAG Soccer Pre Guerra | Alpha Forms Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-4 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per game | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 4.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L D | L L L L D |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 2–4 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber | 0–6 at Albion SC Dallas Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.52 | -2.03 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.19 | +0.17 |
Common opponents: Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford — we 3–3; they 2–3. Albion SC Dallas Pre — we 3–4; they 0–6. Sting Pre- Ikpa — we 0–1; they 1–1. SOLAR PRE- NWEGBO — we 2–3; they 1–6.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Alpha Forms Pre average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 1 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Alpha Forms Pre concede 4.3/game; worst result 0–6 at Albion SC Dallas Pre.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Sting Pre- Ikpa.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Alpha Forms Pre have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Alpha Forms Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TAG Soccer Pre Guerra – Alpha Forms Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 0.67 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 0.67 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Draw 0.33 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.17 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 30%
- 8th 48%
- 9th 9%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Texans Pre- Mitchell | 3.00 (+2.80) | 1st (2.69) | 23 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber | 2.40 (+2.20) | 2nd (2.40) | 19 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Albion SC Dallas Pre | 2.00 (+1.80) | 4th (1.64) | 15 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | SOLAR PRE- NWEGBO | 1.80 (+1.60) | 3rd (1.77) | 14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ RED | 1.67 (+1.47) | 5th (1.60) | 13 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford | 1.00 (+0.80) | 6th (0.95) | 7 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection |
| 7 | Sting Pre- Ikpa | 0.80 (+0.60) | 7th (0.87) | 6 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection |
How the results connect
19 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link TAG Soccer Pre Guerra to Alpha Forms Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.03 · 7th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Alpha Forms Pre 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -19 |
Home Fairview Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.28 | 0.55 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 02:30 PM |
Dallas Texans Pre- Mitchell 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +18 |
Home Fairview Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–4 | 0.48 | 0.54 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM |
SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ RED 5th · 3-1-2 · GD -1 |
Home Fairview Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.34 | 0.64 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Dallas Texans Pre- Mitchell | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.50 | +0.21 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- NWEGBO · Sun Nov 1 at TAG Soccer Pre Guerra · Sun Nov 8 at Albion SC Dallas Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | +0.11 | -0.73 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 vs Albion SC Dallas Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Pre- Ikpa · Sun Nov 8 at Alpha Forms Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Albion SC Dallas Pre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | WWWLD | -0.75 | +1.22 | 67% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber · Thu Nov 5 at SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ RED · Sun Nov 8 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Mitchell See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | SOLAR PRE- NWEGBO | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 9 | 1.80 | LLWWW | -0.12 | +0.00 | 87% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dallas Texans Pre- Mitchell · Sun Nov 1 at Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford · Sun Nov 8 vs Sting Pre- Ikpa See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ RED | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 | 1.67 | WLDLW | +0.04 | -0.03 | 45% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Nov 5 vs Albion SC Dallas Pre · Sun Nov 8 at TAG Soccer Pre Guerra See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 6 | 1.00 | DLDWD | +0.21 | +0.04 | 1% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sting Pre- Ikpa · Sun Nov 1 vs SOLAR PRE- NWEGBO See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Sting Pre- Ikpa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 | 0.80 | LDLWL | +0.03 | +0.33 | 1% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber · Sun Nov 8 at SOLAR PRE- NWEGBO See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | TAG Soccer Pre Guerra | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 1 | 0.20 | DLLLL | +0.19 | -0.03 | 0% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Alpha Forms Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Mitchell · Sun Nov 8 vs SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ RED See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Alpha Forms Pre | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 26 | -19 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | +0.17 | +0.60 | 0% | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at TAG Soccer Pre Guerra · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.54 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.