Sting Pre- Ikpa
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU12 · 9 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM
Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6B ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.6 against · 1.77 expected points)
| Season so far | Sting Pre- Ikpa | Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L D L | D W D L D |
| Biggest win | 1–0 vs TAG Soccer Pre Guerra | 3–2 vs Alpha Forms Pre |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at Dallas Texans Pre- Mitchell | 0–11 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.61 | -1.41 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.03 | +0.21 |
Common opponents: SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ RED — we 2–3; they 1–1. Alpha Forms Pre — we 1–1; they 3–2. Albion SC Dallas Pre — we 0–1; they 3–3. TAG Soccer Pre Guerra — we 1–0; they 3–3. Dallas Texans Pre- Mitchell — we 1–5; they 0–4.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–11 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Albion SC Dallas Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 52% / draw 20% / loss 27%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford sit 6th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.80.A point moves us above Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Pre- Ikpa – Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.17 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 1%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 39%
- 7th 30%
- 8th 26%
- 9th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Texans Pre- Mitchell | 3.00 (+2.20) | 1st (2.69) | 20 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber | 2.40 (+1.60) | 2nd (2.40) | 16 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Albion SC Dallas Pre | 2.00 (+1.20) | 4th (1.64) | 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | SOLAR PRE- NWEGBO | 1.80 (+1.00) | 3rd (1.77) | 11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ RED | 1.67 (+0.87) | 5th (1.60) | 10 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 6 | Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford | 1.00 (+0.20) | 6th (0.95) | A point next game |
How the results connect
18 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Sting Pre- Ikpa to Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.33 · 3rd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford 6th · 1-3-2 · GD -14 |
Home Fairview Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.77 | 0.96 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 02:30 PM |
FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +14 |
Home Fairview Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.56 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM |
SOLAR PRE- NWEGBO 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +6 |
Away Fairview Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.66 | 0.87 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Texans Pre- Mitchell | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.50 | +0.21 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- NWEGBO · Sun Nov 1 at TAG Soccer Pre Guerra · Sun Nov 8 at Albion SC Dallas Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | +0.11 | -0.73 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 vs Albion SC Dallas Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Pre- Ikpa · Sun Nov 8 at Alpha Forms Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Albion SC Dallas Pre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | WWWLD | -0.75 | +1.22 | 64% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber · Thu Nov 5 at SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ RED · Sun Nov 8 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Mitchell See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | SOLAR PRE- NWEGBO | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 9 | 1.80 | LLWWW | -0.12 | +0.00 | 88% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dallas Texans Pre- Mitchell · Sun Nov 1 at Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford · Sun Nov 8 vs Sting Pre- Ikpa See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ RED | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 | 1.67 | WLDLW | +0.04 | -0.03 | 46% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Nov 5 vs Albion SC Dallas Pre · Sun Nov 8 at TAG Soccer Pre Guerra See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 6 | 1.00 | DLDWD | +0.21 | +0.04 | 1% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sting Pre- Ikpa · Sun Nov 1 vs SOLAR PRE- NWEGBO See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Sting Pre- Ikpa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 | 0.80 | LDLWL | +0.03 | +0.33 | 1% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre R Bradford · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber · Sun Nov 8 at SOLAR PRE- NWEGBO See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | TAG Soccer Pre Guerra | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 1 | 0.20 | DLLLL | +0.19 | -0.03 | 0% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Alpha Forms Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Mitchell · Sun Nov 8 vs SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ RED See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Alpha Forms Pre | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 26 | -19 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | +0.17 | +0.60 | 0% | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at TAG Soccer Pre Guerra · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Thornber See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.54 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.