TableChase Clubs

Bloomingdale Lightning Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Lake Michigan BU11 · 13 teams · BLFC (all teams)

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2nd
7-1-0 record · 8 played
2.75 points per game
+29 goal diff · 39–10
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.4
-0.27 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Bloomingdale Lightning Pre
2nd · 2.75 PPG
vs
FC 1974 Libertyville Pre
13th · 0.00 PPG

Springfield Park , Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 7–0 (expected goals 7.4 for, 0.7 against · 2.98 expected points)

Season so farBloomingdale Lightning PreFC 1974 Libertyville Pre
Position2nd13th
Record (W-D-L)7-1-00-0-8
Points per game2.750.00
Goals for / game4.90.8
Goals against / game1.35.5
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless04
Form (recent first)W W W W WL L L L L
Biggest win9–1 vs Rockford Raptors FC Pre—
Worst loss—1–9 vs FC Wisconsin Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.45-3.52
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.27-0.22

Common opponents: FC Wisconsin Pre — we 6–1; they 1–9. Rockford Raptors FC Pre — we 9–1; they 0–4. Indiana Elite FC Pre — we 3–3; they 0–6. Chicago Soccer Academy Pre — we 3–2; they 1–5. Force Pre — we 7–1; they 2–4. Chicago Magic Soccer Club Pre — we 3–2; they 0–8. Chicago City SC Pre — we 5–0; they 2–6.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FC 1974 Libertyville Pre average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.9); blanked in 4 of 8.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC 1974 Libertyville Pre concede 5.5/game; worst result 1–9 vs FC Wisconsin Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 99% chance; likely score 7–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC 1974 Libertyville Pre have lost 8 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC 1974 Libertyville Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Bloomingdale Lightning Pre – FC 1974 Libertyville Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.78 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.78 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.56 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.44 PPG		 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 7–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.4 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 60%
  3. 3rd 26%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.92 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Roadrunners SC Pre 3.00 (+0.25) 1st (2.82) 50 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection

How the results connect

33 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Bloomingdale Lightning Pre to FC 1974 Libertyville Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

33 favour us
0 favour them
+8.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–2 5–1 3–3 6–0 7–1 4–2 5–0 6–2 3–2 8–0 9–1 4–0 6–1 9–1 1–6 3–0 0–5 0–3 5–11 0–5 Bloomingdale Lightn… 2nd Chicago Soccer Acad… 9th Indiana Elite FC Pre 3rd Force Pre 11th Chicago City SC Pre 12th Chicago Magic Socce… 4th Rockford Raptors FC… 6th FC Wisconsin Pre 5th Chicago Inter Pre 10th FC 1974 Libertyvill… 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 21 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 14 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.21 · 11th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:00 PM		 FC 1974 Libertyville Pre
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -38		 Home
Springfield Park 		●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 7–0 2.98 2.78 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
09:30 AM		 Eclipse Select Soccer Club Pre
7th · 2-1-3 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Oak Brook Park District · turf		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 3–1 2.34 2.73 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
03:00 PM		 Roadrunners SC Pre
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +43		 Away far trip
Jefferson Junior High		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–3 0.61 2.54 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM		 NWI Lions United Pre
8th · 2-2-3 · GD -9		 Home
Camera Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 4–1 2.78 2.56 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 Chicago Inter Pre
10th · 3-0-5 · GD -11		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 4–1 2.72 2.57 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Roadrunners SC Pre
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +43		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.86 2.45 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 FC 1974 Libertyville Pre
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -38		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 6–0 2.95 2.48 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 FC Wisconsin Pre
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +1		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 4–2 2.31 2.47 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
10:00 AM		 Rockford Raptors FC Pre
6th · 3-2-4 · GD -6		 Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.44 2.47 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Indiana Elite FC Pre
3rd · 6-1-1 · GD +25		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.52 2.42 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 NWI Lions United Pre
8th · 2-2-3 · GD -9		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 4–1 2.63 2.43 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 Chicago Soccer Academy Pre
9th · 3-0-5 · GD -4		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 4–1 2.63 2.44 Bank it
Sun May 9
TBD		 Force Pre
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -19		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 5–1 2.90 2.46 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD		 Chicago Magic Soccer Club Pre
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +20		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.29 2.41 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD		 Chicago City SC Pre
12th · 1-0-6 · GD -31		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 7–1 2.89 2.43 Bank it
Sat Jun 5
TBD		 Eclipse Select Soccer Club Pre
7th · 2-1-3 · GD +0		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 4–1 2.57 2.43 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Roadrunners SC Pre 8800 463+43 243.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.36 100% 1.1
2 Bloomingdale Lightning Pre 8710 3910+29 222.75 WWWWW -0.27 -0.21 100% 2.4
3 Indiana Elite FC Pre 8611 4015+25 192.38 LDWWW -0.35 -0.11 98% 3.4
4 Chicago Magic Soccer Club Pre 6402 277+20 122.00 WWLLW +0.24 -0.36 99% 3.1
5 FC Wisconsin Pre 7403 2322+1 121.71 WLWWL +0.43 -0.19 2% 5.4
6 Rockford Raptors FC Pre 9324 1622-6 111.22 DWDLW +0.11 -0.01 0% 7.8
7 Eclipse Select Soccer Club Pre 6213 1818+0 71.17 LWLWD -0.07 -0.01 0% 6.4
8 NWI Lions United Pre 7223 1221-9 81.14 WWDLD -0.45 +0.27 0% 9.6
9 Chicago Soccer Academy Pre 8305 1721-4 91.13 LLLWL -0.16 +0.10 0% 7.9
10 Chicago Inter Pre 8305 1223-11 91.13 WLLLW +0.28 -0.06 0% 8.3
11 Force Pre 6114 827-19 40.67 LLLDL +0.66 +0.02 0% 11.1
12 Chicago City SC Pre 7106 2051-31 30.43 LLLWL +0.47 +0.10 0% 11.5
13 FC 1974 Libertyville Pre 8008 644-38 00.00 LLLLL -0.22 +0.55 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.