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Boise Timbers Pre- One

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Far West BU12 · 10 teams · Boise Timbers | Thorns (all teams)

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10th
0-1-5 record · 6 played
0.17 points per game
-12 goal diff · 6–18
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.3
-0.45 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Boise Timbers Pre- One
10th · 0.17 PPG
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Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue
3rd · 2.25 PPG

Optimist Sports Complex, field 15 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.1 for, 3.5 against · 0.32 expected points)

Season so farBoise Timbers Pre- OneIdaho Rush Pre- I Blue
Position10th3rd
Record (W-D-L)0-1-56-0-2
Points per game0.172.25
Goals for / game1.02.9
Goals against / game3.01.8
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L L L L LW W W L W
Biggest win—8–4 vs Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1
Worst loss0–6 vs FC Portland Pre- I1–3 vs FC Portland Pre- I
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.42+0.80
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.45+0.01

Common opponents: Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 — we 1–1; they 8–4. FC Portland Pre- I — we 0–6; they 1–3. Columbia Premier SC Pre- I — we 1–2; they 3–2. Capital FC PRE- 1 B14 — we 1–4; they 4–2. Eastside Timbers Pre I Red — we 1–2; they 3–2. Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 — we 2–3; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 vs FC Portland Pre- I.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 7%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Optimist Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 sit 9th on 0.17 PPG; we are on 0.17.

    A point moves us above Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boise Timbers Pre- One – Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.14 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Win
0.57 PPG		 9th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds
Draw
0.29 PPG		 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds 10th— holds
Loss
0.14 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 15%
  9. 9th 34%
  10. 10th 48%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.06 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 United PDX Pre- I Black 3.00 (+2.83) 1st (2.77) 53 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Portland Pre- I 2.50 (+2.33) 2nd (2.14) 44 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue 2.25 (+2.08) 3rd (2.03) 40 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
4 Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom 2.00 (+1.83) 5th (1.68) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
5 Columbia Premier SC Pre- I 1.50 (+1.33) 4th (1.71) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
6 Capital FC PRE- 1 B14 1.17 (+1.00) 6th (1.42) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
7 Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 1.17 (+1.00) 7th (0.99) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
8 Eastside Timbers Pre I Red 0.67 (+0.50) 9th (0.53) 12 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
9 Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 0.17 (+0.00) 8th (0.64) Already ahead

How the results connect

30 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Boise Timbers Pre- One to Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
27 favour them
-4.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 0–1 1–2 2–3 1–2 2–3 0–6 3–1 1–1 4–8 1–4 2–4 0–1 2–2 5–2 0–3 1–3 Boise Timbers Pre- … 10th Portland City Unite… 7th Eastside Timbers Pr… 8th Columbia Premier SC… 5th FC Portland Pre- I 2nd Eugene Metro FC Pre… 9th Capital FC PRE- 1 B… 6th Idaho Rush Pre- I B… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.46 · 1st hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 12
TBD
no score posted		 United PDX Pre- I Black
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.05 0.15 Upside
Sun Sep 13
09:00 AM
no score posted		 Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +3		 Away far trip
Riverside High School		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 0–2 0.53 0.20 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM		 Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +9		 Away far trip
Optimist Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–3 0.32 0.21 Upside
Sat Feb 13
TBD		 Columbia Premier SC Pre- I
5th · 3-0-3 · GD +9		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–4 0.27 0.22 Upside
Sun Feb 14
TBD		 FC Portland Pre- I
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +10		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.27 0.22 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD		 United PDX Pre- I Black
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.09 0.21 Upside
Sun Mar 7
TBD		 Eastside Timbers Pre I Red
8th · 1-1-4 · GD -25		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–1 1.80 0.33 Swing game
Sat Mar 27
TBD		 Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +9		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–3 0.48 0.34 Upside
Sat Apr 3
10:30 AM		 Capital FC PRE- 1 B14
6th · 2-1-3 · GD -2		 Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.56 0.36 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1
9th · 0-1-5 · GD -11		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–2 1.02 0.40 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Portland City United - PRE- RED 1
7th · 2-1-3 · GD -5		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–2 1.12 0.44 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +3		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
16%		 0–1 0.70 0.46 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 United PDX Pre- I Black 5500 251+24 153.00 WWWWW +0.05 -0.45 100% 1.0
2 FC Portland Pre- I 6501 166+10 152.50 LWWWW -0.24 -0.04 96% 2.6
3 Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue 8602 2314+9 182.25 WLWWW +0.01 -0.21 93% 3.0
4 Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom 5311 74+3 102.00 LWDWW -0.10 -0.02 42% 4.6
5 Columbia Premier SC Pre- I 6303 2314+9 91.50 LLWWL -0.06 -0.08 56% 4.3
6 Capital FC PRE- 1 B14 6213 1214-2 71.17 WLLWL +0.41 -0.18 12% 5.6
7 Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 6213 1015-5 71.17 DWLLW -0.51 +0.39 0% 7.1
8 Eastside Timbers Pre I Red 6114 833-25 40.67 DLLWL +0.55 +0.14 0% 9.0
9 Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 6015 920-11 10.17 LLLLL +0.02 +0.21 0% 8.5
10 Boise Timbers Pre- One 6015 618-12 10.17 LLLLL -0.45 +0.46 0% 9.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.28 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.