United PDX Pre- I Black
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Far West BU12 · 10 teams · United PDX (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM
Oregon Episcopal School , Turf - West ↗ · turf
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.5 for, 0.7 against · 2.86 expected points)
| Season so far | United PDX Pre- I Black | Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / game | 5.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 0.2 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W L L W D |
| Biggest win | 11–0 vs Eastside Timbers Pre I Red | 5–2 vs Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 |
| Worst loss | — | 0–5 vs Columbia Premier SC Pre- I |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.88 | -0.71 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.05 | -0.51 |
Common opponents: Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue — we 1–0; they 0–1. Eastside Timbers Pre I Red — we 11–0; they 2–2. Columbia Premier SC Pre- I — we 6–1; they 0–5.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 94% chance; likely score 4–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (United PDX Pre- I Black – Portland City United - PRE- RED 1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 98%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
22 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link United PDX Pre- I Black to Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.45 · 10th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 12 TBD no score posted |
Boise Timbers Pre- One 10th · 0-1-5 · GD -12 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.93 | 2.99 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -5 |
Home Oregon Episcopal School · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.86 | 2.97 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Riverside High School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–0 | 2.26 | 2.88 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -11 |
Home Oregon Episcopal School · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.92 | 2.89 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -11 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.86 | 2.88 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
FC Portland Pre- I 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.31 | 2.83 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 11:00 AM |
Eastside Timbers Pre I Red 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -25 |
Away Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.96 | 2.84 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Boise Timbers Pre- One 10th · 0-1-5 · GD -12 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.87 | 2.84 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue 3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +9 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.33 | 2.81 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 10:30 AM |
Capital FC PRE- 1 B14 6th · 2-1-3 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–1 | 2.61 | 2.79 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -5 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–0 | 2.76 | 2.79 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +3 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.45 | 2.77 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Columbia Premier SC Pre- I 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +9 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
4–1 | 2.65 | 2.77 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United PDX Pre- I Black | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | +24 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.05 | -0.45 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Boise Timbers Pre- One · Sun Oct 25 vs Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 · Sat Nov 7 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Portland Pre- I | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | -0.24 | -0.04 | 96% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom · Sun Nov 1 at Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 · Sat Nov 21 at Columbia Premier SC Pre- I See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 18 | 2.25 | WLWWW | +0.01 | -0.21 | 93% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Boise Timbers Pre- One · Sat Feb 13 at FC Portland Pre- I · Sun Feb 14 at Columbia Premier SC Pre- I See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | LWDWW | -0.10 | -0.02 | 42% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs Boise Timbers Pre- One · Sun Oct 25 at FC Portland Pre- I · Sat Nov 7 vs United PDX Pre- I Black See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Columbia Premier SC Pre- I | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 9 | 1.50 | LLWWL | -0.06 | -0.08 | 56% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Capital FC PRE- 1 B14 · Sun Nov 15 at Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Portland Pre- I See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Capital FC PRE- 1 B14 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 7 | 1.17 | WLLWL | +0.41 | -0.18 | 12% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside Timbers Pre I Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Columbia Premier SC Pre- I · Sun Nov 15 vs Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 | 1.17 | DWLLW | -0.51 | +0.39 | 0% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at United PDX Pre- I Black · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Portland Pre- I · Sun Nov 15 at Capital FC PRE- 1 B14 See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Eastside Timbers Pre I Red | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 33 | -25 | 4 | 0.67 | DLLWL | +0.55 | +0.14 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC PRE- 1 B14 · Sun Nov 1 vs Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 · Sun Nov 22 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLL | +0.02 | +0.21 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Eastside Timbers Pre I Red · Sun Nov 15 vs Columbia Premier SC Pre- I · Sun Nov 22 at United PDX Pre- I Black See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Boise Timbers Pre- One | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLL | -0.45 | +0.46 | 0% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at United PDX Pre- I Black · Sun Sep 13 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom · Sat Oct 31 at Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.28 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.