Portland City United - PRE- RED 1

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Oregon Episcopal School , Turf - West ↗ · turf

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–4 (expected goals 0.7 for, 4.5 against · 0.10 expected points)

Common opponents: Columbia Premier SC Pre- I — we 0–5; they 6–1. Eastside Timbers Pre I Red — we 2–2; they 11–0. Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue — we 0–1; they 1–0.

• Respect their attack
  United PDX Pre- I Black score 5.0/game — well above the league's 2.3.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• Hard to break down
  United PDX Pre- I Black concede only 0.2/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

  Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 vs Columbia Premier SC Pre- I, 0–3 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom, 0–1 vs Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 2%; a draw (4%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• They arrive in form
  United PDX Pre- I Black have won 5 straight.

  Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

• Away game
  Kickoff 09:00 AM at Oregon Episcopal School .

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  Capital FC PRE- 1 B14 sit 6th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.17.

  A point moves us above Capital FC PRE- 1 B14 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the United PDX Pre- I Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 – United PDX Pre- I Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–4 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th <1%
5. 5th 1%
6. 6th 10%
7. 7th 70%
8. 8th 15%
9. 9th 3%
10. 10th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.39 PPG if we win out).