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Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Far West BU12 · 10 teams · Oregon Premier FC (all teams)

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4th
3-1-1 record · 5 played
2.00 points per game
+3 goal diff · 7–4
LWDWWlast 5
42% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.6
-0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom
4th · 2.00 PPG
at
FC Portland Pre- I
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Liberty High School, JV Field ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 1.0 for, 1.6 against · 0.97 expected points)

Season so farOregon Premier FC Pre PhantomFC Portland Pre- I
Position4th2nd
Record (W-D-L)3-1-15-0-1
Points per game2.002.50
Goals for / game1.42.7
Goals against / game0.81.0
Clean sheets33
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W D W LW W W W L
Biggest win3–0 vs Portland City United - PRE- RED 16–0 at Boise Timbers Pre- One
Worst loss0–3 vs Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue0–4 vs United PDX Pre- I Black
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.33+1.05
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.10-0.24

Common opponents: Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue — we 0–3; they 3–1. Capital FC PRE- 1 B14 — we 1–1; they 3–1. Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 — we 1–0; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    FC Portland Pre- I concede only 1.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 24%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    FC Portland Pre- I have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Liberty High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Portland Pre- I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom – FC Portland Pre- I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.67 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.17 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
1.83 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
1.67 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
42% top 4
58% below the top 4
4.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 4%
  3. 3rd 12%
  4. 4th 27%
  5. 5th 38%
  6. 6th 18%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.72 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 United PDX Pre- I Black 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.77) 44 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Portland Pre- I 2.50 (+0.50) 2nd (2.14) 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue 2.25 (+0.25) 3rd (2.03) 31 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection

How the results connect

22 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom to FC Portland Pre- I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
5 even
12 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 0–1 1–1 1–3 0–3 1–3 3–0 2–2 0–3 0–1 0–1 4–0 8–4 4–2 0–3 2–0 2–3 1–6 3–2 0–6 Oregon Premier FC P… 4th Eugene Metro FC Pre… 9th Capital FC PRE- 1 B… 6th Idaho Rush Pre- I B… 3rd Portland City Unite… 7th Columbia Premier SC… 5th Eastside Timbers Pr… 8th United PDX Pre- I B… 1st Boise Timbers Pre- … 10th FC Portland Pre- I 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 5th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 13
09:00 AM
no score posted
Boise Timbers Pre- One
10th · 0-1-5 · GD -12
Home
Riverside High School
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–0 2.29 2.05 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
FC Portland Pre- I
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +10
Away far trip
Liberty High School
●●●●● Very tough
24%
0–1 0.97 1.89 Upside
Sat Nov 7
10:00 AM
United PDX Pre- I Black
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24
Home
Riverside High School
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–2 0.55 1.73 Upside
Sun Nov 22
01:00 PM
Eastside Timbers Pre I Red
8th · 1-1-4 · GD -25
Home
Hazelia
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–0 2.58 1.82 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
10:00 AM
Columbia Premier SC Pre- I
5th · 3-0-3 · GD +9
Home
Riverside High School
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.42 1.78 Upside
Sun Feb 14
10:30 AM
Capital FC PRE- 1 B14
6th · 2-1-3 · GD -2
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.48 1.75 Upside
Sat Feb 20
09:00 AM
Portland City United - PRE- RED 1
7th · 2-1-3 · GD -5
Away far trip
Buckman Field Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.78 1.76 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
01:00 PM
Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1
9th · 0-1-5 · GD -11
Away far trip
Lane Community College
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.98 1.77 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
10:00 AM
FC Portland Pre- I
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +10
Home
Riverside High School
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.18 1.73 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:30 PM
Eastside Timbers Pre I Red
8th · 1-1-4 · GD -25
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
2–1 2.39 1.77 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
United PDX Pre- I Black
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24
Away
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.40 1.69 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +9
Away
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.12 1.66 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Boise Timbers Pre- One
10th · 0-1-5 · GD -12
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
1–0 2.09 1.68 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 United PDX Pre- I Black 5500 251+24 153.00 WWWWW +0.05 -0.45 100% 1.0
2 FC Portland Pre- I 6501 166+10 152.50 LWWWW -0.24 -0.04 96% 2.6
3 Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue 8602 2314+9 182.25 WLWWW +0.01 -0.21 93% 3.0
4 Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom 5311 74+3 102.00 LWDWW -0.10 -0.02 42% 4.6
5 Columbia Premier SC Pre- I 6303 2314+9 91.50 LLWWL -0.06 -0.08 56% 4.3
6 Capital FC PRE- 1 B14 6213 1214-2 71.17 WLLWL +0.41 -0.18 12% 5.6
7 Portland City United - PRE- RED 1 6213 1015-5 71.17 DWLLW -0.51 +0.39 0% 7.1
8 Eastside Timbers Pre I Red 6114 833-25 40.67 DLLWL +0.55 +0.14 0% 9.0
9 Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 6015 920-11 10.17 LLLLL +0.02 +0.21 0% 8.5
10 Boise Timbers Pre- One 6015 618-12 10.17 LLLLL -0.45 +0.46 0% 9.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.28 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.