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Boise Timbers Pre- Two

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Far West BU11 · 10 teams · Boise Timbers | Thorns (all teams)

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4th
3-2-1 record · 6 played
1.83 points per game
+5 goal diff · 16–11
WLDDWlast 5
48% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.7
-1.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM

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Boise Timbers Pre- Two
4th · 1.83 PPG
at

Optimist Sports Complex, Field 13 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.6 against · 1.36 expected points)

Season so farBoise Timbers Pre- TwoIdaho Rush Pre- II Black
Position4th5th
Record (W-D-L)3-2-14-0-4
Points per game1.831.50
Goals for / game2.73.0
Goals against / game1.83.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W D D L WW L W W L
Biggest win4–0 vs Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 26–2 vs Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2
Worst loss0–2 vs Columbia Premier SC Pre- II0–4 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.24+0.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.08-0.12

Common opponents: Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 — we 4–0; they 6–2. FC Portland Pre- II — we 3–1; they 4–2. Columbia Premier SC Pre- II — we 0–2; they 2–5. Capital FC PRE- 2 B15 — we 3–3; they 5–3. Eastside Timbers Pre II Black — we 3–3; they 5–1. Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 — we 3–2; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Columbia Premier SC Pre- II.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 39%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Optimist Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Idaho Rush Pre- II Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boise Timbers Pre- Two – Idaho Rush Pre- II Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.71 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.71 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
1.57 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
48% top 4
52% below the top 4
4.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 46%
  5. 5th 34%
  6. 6th 17%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.61 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo 3.00 (+1.17) 1st (2.81) 43 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 United PDX Pre- II Blue 2.60 (+0.77) 2nd (2.34) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
3 Columbia Premier SC Pre- II 2.17 (+0.34) 3rd (2.17) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection

How the results connect

30 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Boise Timbers Pre- Two to Idaho Rush Pre- II Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
5 even
16 favour them
-0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 2–4 4–0 2–6 0–2 5–2 3–2 2–1 3–3 3–5 3–3 1–5 6–4 1–1 0–8 4–0 5–5 1–5 0–5 5–1 Boise Timbers Pre- … 4th FC Portland Pre- II 6th Eugene Metro FC Pre… 7th Columbia Premier SC… 3rd Portland City Unite… 8th Capital FC PRE- 2 B… 10th Eastside Timbers Pr… 9th Oregon Premier FC P… 1st United PDX Pre- II … 2nd Idaho Rush Pre- II … 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.54 · 1st hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 12
TBD
no score posted
United PDX Pre- II Blue
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +18
Away
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.53 1.65 Upside
Sun Sep 13
11:00 AM
no score posted
Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +38
Away far trip
Riverside High School
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–4 0.14 1.46 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Idaho Rush Pre- II Black
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +0
Away far trip
Optimist Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.36 1.45 Upside
Sat Feb 13
TBD
Columbia Premier SC Pre- II
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +13
Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.72 1.38 Upside
Sun Feb 14
TBD
FC Portland Pre- II
6th · 2-1-3 · GD -1
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.47 1.38 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
TBD
United PDX Pre- II Blue
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +18
Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.75 1.33 Upside
Sun Mar 7
TBD
Eastside Timbers Pre II Black
9th · 0-2-4 · GD -16
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
4–2 2.37 1.41 Bank it
Sat Mar 27
TBD
Idaho Rush Pre- II Black
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.70 1.43 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 PM
Capital FC PRE- 2 B15
10th · 0-2-4 · GD -17
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.06 1.47 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD
Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2
7th · 2-0-4 · GD -17
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–1 2.16 1.52 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2
8th · 1-1-4 · GD -23
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
4–1 2.54 1.58 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +38
Home
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–4 0.25 1.50 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo 5500 391+38 153.00 WWWWW -0.91 -0.28 100% 1.0
2 United PDX Pre- II Blue 5410 224+18 132.60 WWWWD -0.38 -0.10 100% 2.2
3 Columbia Premier SC Pre- II 6411 218+13 132.17 LWWWD +0.45 -0.39 100% 2.8
4 Boise Timbers Pre- Two 6321 1611+5 111.83 WLDDW -1.08 +0.54 48% 4.7
5 Idaho Rush Pre- II Black 8404 2424+0 121.50 LWWLW -0.12 +0.06 41% 4.8
6 FC Portland Pre- II 6213 1516-1 71.17 LLLWD -0.49 +0.33 12% 5.7
7 Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 6204 825-17 61.00 LWWLL +0.16 +0.33 0% 8.0
8 Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 6114 1134-23 40.67 DLLWL +0.42 +0.25 0% 9.0
9 Eastside Timbers Pre II Black 6024 1531-16 20.33 DLLDL +0.22 +0.26 0% 8.5
10 Capital FC PRE- 2 B15 6024 825-17 20.33 LLLDD +0.74 -0.06 0% 8.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.