TableChase Clubs

Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Far West BU11 · 10 teams · Eugene Metro FC (all teams)

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7th
2-0-4 record · 6 played
1.00 points per game
-17 goal diff · 8–25
LWWLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.1
+0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:30 PM

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Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2
7th · 1.00 PPG
at
Eastside Timbers Pre II Black
9th · 0.33 PPG

Eastside Timbers Sports Complex, Field 3A ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.7 for, 3.6 against · 1.01 expected points)

Season so farEugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2Eastside Timbers Pre II Black
Position7th9th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-40-2-4
Points per game1.000.33
Goals for / game1.32.5
Goals against / game4.25.2
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L L W W LL D L L D
Biggest win4–2 at Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2—
Worst loss0–8 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo1–7 at United PDX Pre- II Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.79-1.76
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.16+0.22

Common opponents: Boise Timbers Pre- Two — we 0–4; they 3–3. Idaho Rush Pre- II Black — we 2–6; they 1–5. Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 — we 4–2; they 5–5. FC Portland Pre- II — we 1–5; they 4–6.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Eastside Timbers Pre II Black concede 5.2/game; worst result 1–7 at United PDX Pre- II Blue.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 at Boise Timbers Pre- Two, 0–8 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Eastside Timbers Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FC Portland Pre- II sit 6th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above FC Portland Pre- II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eastside Timbers Pre II Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 – Eastside Timbers Pre II Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.86 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Win
1.29 PPG		 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds 7th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Loss
0.86 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 29%
  8. 8th 30%
  9. 9th 22%
  10. 10th 15%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.81) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 United PDX Pre- II Blue 2.60 (+1.60) 2nd (2.34) 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Columbia Premier SC Pre- II 2.17 (+1.17) 3rd (2.17) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
4 Boise Timbers Pre- Two 1.83 (+0.83) 4th (1.50) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 Idaho Rush Pre- II Black 1.50 (+0.50) 5th (1.46) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6 FC Portland Pre- II 1.17 (+0.17) 6th (1.26) A point next game

How the results connect

24 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 to Eastside Timbers Pre II Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
4 even
12 favour them
-0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–6 5–1 1–5 6–4 4–2 5–5 0–4 3–3 0–8 4–0 4–2 3–1 3–0 5–1 0–3 7–1 1–0 3–3 0–7 2–3 Eugene Metro FC Pre… 7th Idaho Rush Pre- II … 5th FC Portland Pre- II 6th Portland City Unite… 8th Boise Timbers Pre- … 4th Oregon Premier FC P… 1st Capital FC PRE- 2 B… 10th Columbia Premier SC… 3rd United PDX Pre- II … 2nd Eastside Timbers Pr… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.33 · 3rd hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
01:30 PM		 Eastside Timbers Pre II Black
9th · 0-2-4 · GD -16		 Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–3 1.01 1.00 Upside
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM		 Columbia Premier SC Pre- II
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +13		 Home
Lane Community College		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–3 0.31 0.92 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM		 United PDX Pre- II Blue
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +18		 Away far trip
Oregon Episcopal School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.11 0.83 Upside
Sat Jan 30
TBD		 United PDX Pre- II Blue
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +18		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.20 0.76 Upside
Sat Feb 6
TBD		 FC Portland Pre- II
6th · 2-1-3 · GD -1		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–3 0.59 0.75 Upside
Sun Feb 7
01:30 PM		 Capital FC PRE- 2 B15
10th · 0-2-4 · GD -17		 Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 2–2 1.12 0.78 Upside
Sun Feb 14
11:30 AM		 Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2
8th · 1-1-4 · GD -23		 Home
Lane Community College		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 3–2 1.68 0.85 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
11:30 AM		 Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +38		 Home
Lane Community College		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–6 0.03 0.79 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Columbia Premier SC Pre- II
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +13		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.19 0.75 Upside
Sat Apr 3
10:30 AM		 Idaho Rush Pre- II Black
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +0		 Home
Lane Community College		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 2–3 0.73 0.75 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Boise Timbers Pre- Two
4th · 3-2-1 · GD +5		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%		 1–3 0.68 0.74 Upside
Sun Apr 25
11:30 AM		 Eastside Timbers Pre II Black
9th · 0-2-4 · GD -16		 Home
Lane Community College		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 3–3 1.37 0.78 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo 5500 391+38 153.00 WWWWW -0.91 -0.28 100% 1.0
2 United PDX Pre- II Blue 5410 224+18 132.60 WWWWD -0.38 -0.10 100% 2.2
3 Columbia Premier SC Pre- II 6411 218+13 132.17 LWWWD +0.45 -0.39 100% 2.8
4 Boise Timbers Pre- Two 6321 1611+5 111.83 WLDDW -1.08 +0.54 50% 4.7
5 Idaho Rush Pre- II Black 8404 2424+0 121.50 LWWLW -0.12 +0.06 39% 4.9
6 FC Portland Pre- II 6213 1516-1 71.17 LLLWD -0.49 +0.33 11% 5.6
7 Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 6204 825-17 61.00 LWWLL +0.16 +0.33 0% 8.1
8 Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 6114 1134-23 40.67 DLLWL +0.42 +0.25 0% 8.9
9 Eastside Timbers Pre II Black 6024 1531-16 20.33 DLLDL +0.22 +0.26 0% 8.5
10 Capital FC PRE- 2 B15 6024 825-17 20.33 LLLDD +0.74 -0.06 0% 8.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.