TableChase Clubs

Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Far West BU11 · 10 teams · Oregon Premier FC (all teams)

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1st
5-0-0 record · 5 played
3.00 points per game
+38 goal diff · 39–1
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1
-0.91 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:30 PM

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Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
FC Portland Pre- II
6th · 1.17 PPG

Liberty High School, JV Field ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.2 for, 1.3 against · 2.80 expected points)

Season so farOregon Premier FC Pre TiempoFC Portland Pre- II
Position1st6th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-02-1-3
Points per game3.001.17
Goals for / game7.82.5
Goals against / game0.22.7
Clean sheets40
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W W WD W L L L
Biggest win14–0 vs Portland City United SC PRE- RED 25–1 at Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2
Worst loss—0–3 vs United PDX Pre- II Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+4.31-0.22
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.91-0.49

Common opponents: Idaho Rush Pre- II Black — we 4–0; they 2–4. Capital FC PRE- 2 B15 — we 10–1; they 1–1. Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 — we 8–0; they 5–1.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 92% chance; likely score 5–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Liberty High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Portland Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo – FC Portland Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.67 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.50 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

95% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.1 average finish
  1. 1st 95%
  2. 2nd 4%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

22 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo to FC Portland Pre- II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

22 favour us
0 favour them
+7.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
8–0 1–5 4–0 4–2 10–1 1–1 1–5 3–0 0–1 6–2 3–0 5–1 4–6 0–4 3–1 2–2 5–3 5–1 Oregon Premier FC P… 1st Eugene Metro FC Pre… 7th Idaho Rush Pre- II … 5th Capital FC PRE- 2 B… 10th Columbia Premier SC… 3rd United PDX Pre- II … 2nd Eastside Timbers Pr… 9th Boise Timbers Pre- … 4th FC Portland Pre- II 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.28 · 9th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 13
11:00 AM
no score posted
Boise Timbers Pre- Two
4th · 3-2-1 · GD +5
Home
Riverside High School
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–1 2.81 2.97 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
01:30 PM
FC Portland Pre- II
6th · 2-1-3 · GD -1
Away far trip
Liberty High School
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
5–1 2.80 2.94 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
04:00 PM
United PDX Pre- II Blue
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +18
Home
Hazelia
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.31 2.86 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
03:00 PM
Eastside Timbers Pre II Black
9th · 0-2-4 · GD -16
Home
Hazelia
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
9–1 2.98 2.88 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
11:30 AM
Columbia Premier SC Pre- II
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +13
Home
Riverside High School
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.51 2.84 Bank it
Sun Feb 14
01:30 PM
Capital FC PRE- 2 B15
10th · 0-2-4 · GD -17
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–0 2.94 2.85 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
09:00 AM
Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2
8th · 1-1-4 · GD -23
Away far trip
Buckman Field Park
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
8–1 2.97 2.86 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
11:30 AM
Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2
7th · 2-0-4 · GD -17
Away far trip
Lane Community College
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.95 2.87 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
11:30 AM
FC Portland Pre- II
6th · 2-1-3 · GD -1
Home
Riverside High School
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–1 2.89 2.87 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
12:30 PM
Eastside Timbers Pre II Black
9th · 0-2-4 · GD -16
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
8–1 2.96 2.87 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
United PDX Pre- II Blue
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +18
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–1 2.04 2.82 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Idaho Rush Pre- II Black
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +0
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
5–1 2.78 2.82 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Boise Timbers Pre- Two
4th · 3-2-1 · GD +5
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.67 2.81 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo 5500 391+38 153.00 WWWWW -0.91 -0.28 100% 1.1
2 United PDX Pre- II Blue 5410 224+18 132.60 WWWWD -0.38 -0.10 100% 2.2
3 Columbia Premier SC Pre- II 6411 218+13 132.17 LWWWD +0.45 -0.39 100% 2.8
4 Boise Timbers Pre- Two 6321 1611+5 111.83 WLDDW -1.08 +0.54 52% 4.6
5 Idaho Rush Pre- II Black 8404 2424+0 121.50 LWWLW -0.12 +0.06 39% 4.8
6 FC Portland Pre- II 6213 1516-1 71.17 LLLWD -0.49 +0.33 10% 5.7
7 Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 6204 825-17 61.00 LWWLL +0.16 +0.33 0% 8.1
8 Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 6114 1134-23 40.67 DLLWL +0.42 +0.25 0% 8.9
9 Eastside Timbers Pre II Black 6024 1531-16 20.33 DLLDL +0.22 +0.26 0% 8.5
10 Capital FC PRE- 2 B15 6024 825-17 20.33 LLLDD +0.74 -0.06 0% 8.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.