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United PDX Pre- II Blue

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Far West BU11 · 10 teams · United PDX (all teams)

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2nd
4-1-0 record · 5 played
2.60 points per game
+18 goal diff · 22–4
WWWWDlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.2
-0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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United PDX Pre- II Blue
2nd · 2.60 PPG
vs

Oregon Episcopal School , Turf - East ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 6–1 (expected goals 6.3 for, 1.2 against · 2.90 expected points)

Season so farUnited PDX Pre- II BluePortland City United SC PRE- RED 2
Position2nd8th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-01-1-4
Points per game2.600.67
Goals for / game4.41.8
Goals against / game0.85.7
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)D W W W WL W L L D
Biggest win7–1 vs Eastside Timbers Pre II Black2–1 vs Idaho Rush Pre- II Black
Worst loss—0–14 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.05-2.37
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.38+0.42

Common opponents: Idaho Rush Pre- II Black — we 5–1; they 2–1. Eastside Timbers Pre II Black — we 7–1; they 5–5. Columbia Premier SC Pre- II — we 2–2; they 0–7.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 concede 5.7/game; worst result 0–14 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 96% chance; likely score 6–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (United PDX Pre- II Blue – Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.67 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.67 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.17 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 6–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.2 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 70%
  3. 3rd 26%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.89 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo 3.00 (+0.40) 1st (2.81) 41 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection

How the results connect

22 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link United PDX Pre- II Blue to Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

21 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+6.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–1 1–2 7–1 5–5 2–2 7–0 3–0 2–4 1–5 5–2 5–0 3–5 1–3 3–2 2–0 5–1 6–4 0–1 4–2 United PDX Pre- II … 2nd Idaho Rush Pre- II … 5th Eastside Timbers Pr… 9th Columbia Premier SC… 3rd FC Portland Pre- II 6th Capital FC PRE- 2 B… 10th Boise Timbers Pre- … 4th Eugene Metro FC Pre… 7th Portland City Unite… 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 8th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 12
TBD
no score posted
Boise Timbers Pre- Two
4th · 3-2-1 · GD +5
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.33 2.56 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2
8th · 1-1-4 · GD -23
Home
Oregon Episcopal School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
6–1 2.90 2.61 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
04:00 PM
Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +38
Away far trip
Hazelia
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.55 2.35 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2
7th · 2-0-4 · GD -17
Home
Oregon Episcopal School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
5–1 2.84 2.40 Bank it
Sat Jan 30
TBD
Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2
7th · 2-0-4 · GD -17
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–1 2.73 2.44 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
TBD
FC Portland Pre- II
6th · 2-1-3 · GD -1
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.53 2.44 Bank it
Sat Feb 27
11:00 AM
Eastside Timbers Pre II Black
9th · 0-2-4 · GD -16
Away
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
5–1 2.73 2.47 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
TBD
Boise Timbers Pre- Two
4th · 3-2-1 · GD +5
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.08 2.44 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
TBD
Idaho Rush Pre- II Black
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +0
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.24 2.42 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 PM
Capital FC PRE- 2 B15
10th · 0-2-4 · GD -17
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.68 2.44 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD
Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2
8th · 1-1-4 · GD -23
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
5–1 2.82 2.47 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +38
Home
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–3 0.80 2.37 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Columbia Premier SC Pre- II
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +13
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.82 2.34 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo 5500 391+38 153.00 WWWWW -0.91 -0.28 100% 1.0
2 United PDX Pre- II Blue 5410 224+18 132.60 WWWWD -0.38 -0.10 100% 2.2
3 Columbia Premier SC Pre- II 6411 218+13 132.17 LWWWD +0.45 -0.39 100% 2.8
4 Boise Timbers Pre- Two 6321 1611+5 111.83 WLDDW -1.08 +0.54 49% 4.7
5 Idaho Rush Pre- II Black 8404 2424+0 121.50 LWWLW -0.12 +0.06 40% 4.8
6 FC Portland Pre- II 6213 1516-1 71.17 LLLWD -0.49 +0.33 11% 5.7
7 Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 6204 825-17 61.00 LWWLL +0.16 +0.33 0% 8.1
8 Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 6114 1134-23 40.67 DLLWL +0.42 +0.25 0% 9.0
9 Eastside Timbers Pre II Black 6024 1531-16 20.33 DLLDL +0.22 +0.26 0% 8.5
10 Capital FC PRE- 2 B15 6024 825-17 20.33 LLLDD +0.74 -0.06 0% 8.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.