TableChase Clubs

Boise Timbers Pre- One

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Far West BU11 · 10 teams · Boise Timbers | Thorns (all teams)

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6th
3-0-3 record · 6 played
1.50 points per game
-8 goal diff · 12–20
LLLWWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.7
-0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM

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Boise Timbers Pre- One
6th · 1.50 PPG
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Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue
8th · 0.88 PPG

Optimist Sports Complex, field 15 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–3 (expected goals 3.4 for, 3.3 against · 1.46 expected points)

Season so farBoise Timbers Pre- OneIdaho Rush Pre- I Blue
Position6th8th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-32-1-5
Points per game1.500.88
Goals for / game2.02.4
Goals against / game3.35.1
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)W W L L LW W L D L
Biggest win2–0 at Eastside Timbers Pre I Red5–1 at Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1
Worst loss0–6 vs Capital FC PRE- 1 B151–10 at United PDX Pre- I Black
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.02-1.78
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.33+0.29

Common opponents: Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 — we 3–2; they 3–7. FC Portland Pre- I — we 1–3; they 2–2. Columbia Premier SC Pre- I — we 0–5; they 2–11. Capital FC PRE- 1 B15 — we 0–6; they 2–3. Eastside Timbers Pre I Red — we 2–0; they 3–2. Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 — we 6–4; they 5–1.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue concede 5.1/game; worst result 1–10 at United PDX Pre- I Black.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 vs Columbia Premier SC Pre- I, 0–6 vs Capital FC PRE- 1 B15.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 43% / draw 16% / loss 41%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Optimist Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Capital FC PRE- 1 B15 sit 5th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Capital FC PRE- 1 B15 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boise Timbers Pre- One – Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.43 PPG		 6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds
Win
1.71 PPG		 5th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds
Draw
1.43 PPG		 6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds
Loss
1.29 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–3 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
6.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 46%
  7. 7th 33%
  8. 8th 15%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.71) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 United PDX Pre- I Black 2.40 (+0.90) 3rd (2.16) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
3 FC Portland Pre- I 2.33 (+0.83) 4th (1.89) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
4 Columbia Premier SC Pre- I 2.00 (+0.50) 2nd (2.21) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
5 Capital FC PRE- 1 B15 1.50 (+0.00) 5th (1.67) A point next game

How the results connect

30 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Boise Timbers Pre- One to Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

14 favour us
3 even
13 favour them
+0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 2–3 6–4 1–5 1–3 2–2 0–5 11–2 0–6 3–2 3–2 7–3 3–1 1–0 0–10 2–4 10–1 8–0 Boise Timbers Pre- … 6th Eastside Timbers Pr… 9th Portland City Unite… 10th FC Portland Pre- I 3rd Columbia Premier SC… 4th Capital FC PRE- 1 B… 5th Eugene Metro FC Pre… 7th United PDX Pre- I B… 2nd Idaho Rush Pre- I B… 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.38 · 3rd hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 12
TBD
no score posted		 United PDX Pre- I Black
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +13		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–4 0.28 1.33 Upside
Sun Sep 13
09:00 AM
no score posted		 Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +29		 Away far trip
Riverside High School		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.07 1.17 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM		 Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue
8th · 2-1-5 · GD -22		 Away far trip
Optimist Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 3–3 1.46 1.20 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
TBD		 Columbia Premier SC Pre- I
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +27		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–5 0.12 1.09 Upside
Sun Feb 14
TBD		 FC Portland Pre- I
3rd · 4-2-0 · GD +7		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–2 0.54 1.04 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD		 United PDX Pre- I Black
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +13		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–3 0.45 0.99 Upside
Sun Mar 7
TBD		 Eastside Timbers Pre I Red
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -12		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–2 1.82 1.06 Swing game
Sat Mar 27
TBD		 Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue
8th · 2-1-5 · GD -22		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 3–2 1.84 1.11 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
09:00 AM		 Capital FC PRE- 1 B15
5th · 3-0-3 · GD +3		 Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–3 0.60 1.08 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1
7th · 2-0-4 · GD -6		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 2–2 1.12 1.08 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1
10th · 0-0-6 · GD -31		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 4–1 2.47 1.16 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +29		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–5 0.12 1.11 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom 5500 301+29 153.00 WWWWW -0.56 -0.22 100% 1.1
2 United PDX Pre- I Black 5401 207+13 122.40 WLWWW +0.24 -0.23 98% 2.8
3 FC Portland Pre- I 6420 136+7 142.33 WWDWW -0.45 +0.20 75% 4.0
4 Columbia Premier SC Pre- I 6402 358+27 122.00 LWWWL -0.40 -0.14 98% 2.5
5 Capital FC PRE- 1 B15 6303 1411+3 91.50 WLWWL +0.31 -0.17 30% 4.7
6 Boise Timbers Pre- One 6303 1220-8 91.50 LLLWW -0.33 +0.38 0% 6.7
7 Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 6204 1218-6 61.00 WWLLL -0.19 +0.34 0% 6.9
8 Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue 8215 1941-22 70.88 LDLWW +0.29 +0.13 0% 7.9
9 Eastside Timbers Pre I Red 6114 921-12 40.67 WLLLL -0.21 +0.41 0% 8.5
10 Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 6006 738-31 00.00 LLLLL +0.10 +0.55 0% 10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.