United PDX Pre- I Black
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Far West BU11 · 10 teams · United PDX (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:30 AM
Oregon Episcopal School , Turf - West ↗ · turf
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 6–1 (expected goals 7.0 for, 1.1 against · 2.94 expected points)
| Season so far | United PDX Pre- I Black | Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-1 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 4.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 6.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 10–1 vs Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue | — |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at FC Portland Pre- I | 0–12 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.60 | -3.35 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.24 | +0.10 |
Common opponents: Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue — we 10–1; they 1–5. Eastside Timbers Pre I Red — we 3–0; they 1–5. Columbia Premier SC Pre- I — we 2–1; they 0–8.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 2.7); blanked in 2 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 concede 6.3/game; worst result 0–12 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 6–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (United PDX Pre- I Black – Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.17 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 6–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 33%
- 3rd 48%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 3%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom | 3.00 (+0.60) | 1st (2.71) | 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
How the results connect
22 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link United PDX Pre- I Black to Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.23 · 10th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 12 TBD no score posted |
Boise Timbers Pre- One 6th · 3-0-3 · GD -8 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
4–1 | 2.64 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM |
Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -31 |
Home Oregon Episcopal School · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
6–1 | 2.94 | 2.51 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +29 |
Away far trip
Hazelia |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.53 | 2.26 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 10:30 AM |
Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -6 |
Home Oregon Episcopal School · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
4–1 | 2.54 | 2.29 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -6 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.32 | 2.30 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
FC Portland Pre- I 3rd · 4-2-0 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.82 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 12:30 PM |
Eastside Timbers Pre I Red 9th · 1-1-4 · GD -12 |
Away Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.55 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Boise Timbers Pre- One 6th · 3-0-3 · GD -8 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.43 | 2.29 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue 8th · 2-1-5 · GD -22 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
5–1 | 2.64 | 2.32 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 09:00 AM |
Capital FC PRE- 1 B15 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.72 | 2.28 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -31 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
6–1 | 2.88 | 2.31 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +29 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.75 | 2.22 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Columbia Premier SC Pre- I 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +27 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.19 | 2.16 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | +29 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.56 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs Boise Timbers Pre- One · Sun Oct 25 at FC Portland Pre- I · Sat Nov 7 vs United PDX Pre- I Black See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | United PDX Pre- I Black | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | +0.24 | -0.23 | 98% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Boise Timbers Pre- One · Sun Oct 25 vs Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 · Sat Nov 7 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Portland Pre- I | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 14 | 2.33 | WWDWW | -0.45 | +0.20 | 77% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom · Sun Nov 1 at Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 · Sat Nov 21 at Columbia Premier SC Pre- I See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Columbia Premier SC Pre- I | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 8 | +27 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWWL | -0.40 | -0.14 | 98% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Capital FC PRE- 1 B15 · Sun Nov 15 at Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Portland Pre- I See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Capital FC PRE- 1 B15 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 9 | 1.50 | WLWWL | +0.31 | -0.17 | 28% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside Timbers Pre I Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Columbia Premier SC Pre- I · Sun Nov 15 vs Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Boise Timbers Pre- One | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 9 | 1.50 | LLLWW | -0.33 | +0.38 | 0% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at United PDX Pre- I Black · Sun Sep 13 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom · Sat Oct 31 at Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 6 | 1.00 | WWLLL | -0.19 | +0.34 | 0% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Eastside Timbers Pre I Red · Sun Nov 15 vs Columbia Premier SC Pre- I · Sun Nov 22 at United PDX Pre- I Black See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Idaho Rush Pre- I Blue | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 7 | 0.88 | LDLWW | +0.29 | +0.13 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Boise Timbers Pre- One · Sat Feb 13 at FC Portland Pre- I · Sun Feb 14 at Columbia Premier SC Pre- I See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Eastside Timbers Pre I Red | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLL | -0.21 | +0.41 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC PRE- 1 B15 · Sun Nov 1 vs Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 1 · Sun Nov 22 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Phantom See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Portland City United SC PRE- RED 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 38 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.10 | +0.55 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at United PDX Pre- I Black · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Portland Pre- I · Sun Nov 15 at Capital FC PRE- 1 B15 See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.