North Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Twin Cities GU13 · 14 teams · North Surf (all teams)

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7th

2-0-2 record · 4 played

1.50 points per game

-2 goal diff · 5–7

LWLWlast 4

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.2

+0.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM

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North Surf
7th · 1.50 PPG

MN Thunder Academy
12th · 0.50 PPG

National Sports Center, Field 26 ↗

58% 26% 16%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.5 for, 0.7 against · 2.00 expected points)

Season so far	North Surf	MN Thunder Academy
Position	7th	12th
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-2	0-2-2
Points per game	1.50	0.50
Goals for / game	1.3	0.0
Goals against / game	1.8	1.5
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	1	4
Form (recent first)	W L W L	L L D D
Biggest win	2–0 vs Tonka United SA	—
Worst loss	0–4 at Minnesota Rush	0–3 vs Boreal FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.25	-0.91
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.03	-0.21

Common opponents: Tonka United SA — we 2–0; they 0–0. Boreal FC — we 1–3; they 0–3. Fusion Soccer Club — we 2–0; they 0–0.

Game plan

They struggle to score
MN Thunder Academy average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.5); blanked in 4 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Minnesota Rush.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 58% / draw 26% / loss 16%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
What a win does
Boreal FC sit 6th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A win moves us above Boreal FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the MN Thunder Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (North Surf – MN Thunder Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.80 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Win 1.80 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Draw 1.40 PPG	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1	8th▼ down 1
Loss 1.20 PPG	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1	9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

7.2 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 1%
5th 5%
6th 7%
7th 55%
8th 30%
9th 2%
10th <1%
11th
12th
13th
14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Minnesota Rush	3.00 (+1.50)	1st (2.97)	12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	St Croix	2.67 (+1.17)	2nd (2.67)	11 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Manitou FC	2.60 (+1.10)	3rd (2.61)	10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	DASC	2.14 (+0.64)	4th (2.14)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Lakeville Soccer Club	2.00 (+0.50)	5th (2.00)	6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
6	Boreal FC	1.80 (+0.30)	6th (1.88)	Win next game

How the results connect

14 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link North Surf to MN Thunder Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

4 even

1 favour them

+1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 4th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Fri Sep 25 05:00 PM no score posted	DASC 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +7	Away National Sports Center	●●●●● Very tough	17%	1–2	0.69	1.34	Upside
Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM	MN Thunder Academy 12th · 0-2-2 · GD -6	Home National Sports Center	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	1–0	2.00	1.45	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Minnesota Rush

+17

3.00

WWWWW

-0.28

-0.91

100%

1.1

W	Mon Oct 12	at	Fusion Soccer Club (13th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Boreal FC (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Tonka United SA (10th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	DASC (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	North Surf (7th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	MN Thunder Academy (12th)	3–0	91%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

St Croix

+17

2.67

WWWWW

-0.04

—

100%

2.0

Manitou FC

+10

2.60

DWWWW

-0.08

-1.08

100%

3.0

W	Tue Oct 20	at	Shakopee SA (14th)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Keliix-Intra Soccer Club (8th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	MapleBrook SC (9th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Lakeville Soccer Club (5th)	3–1
D	Fri Sep 18	vs	St Croix (2nd)	0–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Wave SC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Wave SC (11th)	2–0	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DASC

2.14

WLWWW

-0.02

-0.25

80%

4.4

W	Sun Oct 11	at	MN Thunder Academy (12th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Shakopee SA (14th)	4–1
W	Fri Oct 9	at	Tonka United SA (10th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	St Croix (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Fusion Soccer Club (13th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Minnesota Rush (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Boreal FC (6th)	1–0

Next: Fri Sep 25 vs North Surf See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Sep 25 (no score yet)	vs	North Surf (7th)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lakeville Soccer Club

2.00

LLWWW

-0.09

—

5.5

Boreal FC

1.80

LWWWL

+0.07

-0.87

14%

5.2

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Minnesota Rush (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	North Surf (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	MN Thunder Academy (12th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Fusion Soccer Club (13th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	DASC (4th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tonka United SA See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Tonka United SA (10th)	2–0	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

North Surf

-2

1.50

LWLW

+0.03

-0.11

7.2

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Fusion Soccer Club (13th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Boreal FC (6th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Tonka United SA (10th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Minnesota Rush (1st)	0–4

Next: Fri Sep 25 at DASC · Sun Oct 25 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Sep 25 (no score yet)	at	DASC (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	MN Thunder Academy (12th)	1–0	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Keliix-Intra Soccer Club

-5

1.20

LWWLL

+0.38

-1.09

7.8

L	Sun Oct 11	at	St Croix (2nd)	1–6
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Manitou FC (3rd)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Wave SC (11th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	MapleBrook SC (9th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lakeville Soccer Club (5th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Shakopee SA See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Shakopee SA (14th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MapleBrook SC

-6

1.00

LWLLL

+0.15

—

9.0

Tonka United SA

-7

0.80

WDLLL

+0.10

+0.51

10.0

L	Fri Oct 9	vs	DASC (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Minnesota Rush (1st)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	North Surf (7th)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	MN Thunder Academy (12th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Fusion Soccer Club (13th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Boreal FC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Boreal FC (6th)	0–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wave SC

-9

0.60

WLLLL

+0.01

+1.21

11.5

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Lakeville Soccer Club (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	St Croix (2nd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	MapleBrook SC (9th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Keliix-Intra Soccer Club (8th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Shakopee SA (14th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Manitou FC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Manitou FC (3rd)	0–2	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MN Thunder Academy

-6

0.50

DDLL

-0.21

+0.88

11.6

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	DASC (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Boreal FC (6th)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Tonka United SA (10th)	0–0
D	Fri Sep 18	vs	Fusion Soccer Club (13th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Minnesota Rush · Sun Oct 25 at North Surf See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Minnesota Rush (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	North Surf (7th)	0–1	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Fusion Soccer Club

-13

0.17

DLLLL

+0.24

—

13.4

Shakopee SA

-9

0.00

LLLLL

+0.15

-0.51

13.2

L	Tue Oct 20	vs	Manitou FC (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	DASC (4th)	1–4
L	Thu Oct 8	at	Lakeville Soccer Club (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Wave SC (11th)	1–2
L	Fri Sep 18	vs	MapleBrook SC (9th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keliix-Intra Soccer Club See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Keliix-Intra Soccer Club (8th)	1–2	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.